AFL Insights

Tips

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Tip difficulty Tricky Pass mark 4.84/7 tips (8th hardest so far this season)

Roughie of the week

Carlton over GWS

$3.03 · model 43% vs market 31%

Highest confidence

Fremantle over Geelong

70% confidence · ~19 pts

Closest calls

2 coin tosses
GCS v HAW · 54% STK v WBD · 55%

What stands out

Round storylines

Club stat watch
Adelaide
68.7 league-high tackles per game

Adelaide are setting the league pace for tackles

They average 68.7 tackles a game, +7.2 ahead of the next club.

13 game sample 893 total tackles +7.2 per game on second
Win-stat link
Geelong
6-0 when winning one-percenters

Geelong keep turning one-percenters wins into actual wins

They are 6-0 when they win one-percenters, versus 43% when they do not.

100% win rate +8.0 one-percenters gap 13 decisive stat games

Round 15  ·  Thu 18 Jun, 6:10 PM AWST

Fremantle v Geelong

Optus Stadium

Twelve straight and a score to settle, Freo at home

Tip

70%
Fremantle

Medium confidence ~19 pts

Form

Fremantle big edge Recent margin form is running 38.8 pts better.

Injury

Fremantle big edge Outs currently sit 1-6 across the two squads.
AI agrees 💀 Bogey: FRE

Round 15  ·  Fri 19 Jun, 7:40 PM AEST

Gold Coast v Hawthorn

Carrara

Hawks scrape past a banged up Suns outfit at Carrara

Tip

54%
Hawthorn

Coin toss confidence ~4 pts Coin toss

Form

Hawthorn big edge Recent margin form is running 18.2 pts better.

Rub of the green

Hawthorn big edge Hawthorn +4.4 pts · GCS -0.7 · HAW +3.6
Coin toss AI dissent

Round 15  ·  Sat 20 Jun, 12:45 PM ACST

Adelaide v Melbourne

Adelaide Oval

Lever celebrates 200 but Crows make Adelaide Oval count

Tip

70%
Adelaide

Medium confidence ~22 pts

Form

Adelaide big edge Recent margin form is running 29.0 pts better.

Venue

Adelaide big edge true home ground · fortress edge
AI agrees Flat-track bully: ADE 🌧 Wet

Round 15  ·  Sat 20 Jun, 4:15 PM AEST

GWS v Carlton

ENGIE Stadium

Giants grind it out at ENGIE without Weitering there to stop them

Tip

57%
GWS

Coin toss confidence ~12 pts

Travel / turnaround

GWS big edge interstate travel · travel turnaround · rest differential

Form

GWS solid edge Recent margin form is running 11.8 pts better.

Round 15  ·  Sat 20 Jun, 7:35 PM AEST

Collingwood v Port Adelaide

MCG

Pies own Power at the G, wet night keeps it tight

Tip

70%
Collingwood

Medium confidence ~9 pts

Travel / turnaround

Collingwood big edge interstate travel · rest differential

Form

Collingwood solid edge Recent margin form is running 12.0 pts better.
🌧 Wet

Round 15  ·  Sun 21 Jun, 1:10 PM AEST

Richmond v North Melbourne

MCG

Sheezel fancying another 54 touch day at the Tigers expense

Tip

65%
North Melbourne

Medium confidence ~16 pts

Venue

Richmond solid edge true home ground · fortress edge

Form

Richmond small edge Recent margin form is running 4.5 pts better.

Round 15  ·  Sun 21 Jun, 3:15 PM AEST

St Kilda v Western Bulldogs

Marvel Stadium

Saints squeeze one out under the Marvel roof without Clark

Tip

55%
St Kilda

Coin toss confidence ~3 pts Coin toss

Umpire edge

Western Bulldogs big edge Crew club residual signal 8.3 pts over 148 samples; context only.

Rub of the green

Western Bulldogs big edge Western Bulldogs +7.8 pts · STK -3.8 · WBD +3.9
Coin toss AI dissent