AFL Insights

Tips

← Prev 2026 Round 14 Next →
Tip difficulty Manageable Pass mark 5.36/7 tips (3rd easiest so far this season)

Roughie of the week

Port Adelaide over Sydney

$2.85 · model 40% vs market 33%

Highest confidence

Brisbane Lions over Richmond

88% confidence · ~49 pts

Closest calls

2 coin tosses
WBD v ADE · 55% STK v GWS · 54%

What stands out

Round storylines

Market mispricing
GWS
+2.2 wins vs market expectation

GWS keep beating their underdog tag

Since 2025, they are 7-7 as underdogs against only 4.8 expected wins from closing odds, running +10.5 points a game against the line.

14 underdog games 7-7 outright 7-7 vs line
Crew rub
Geelong
vs
Gold Coast
+10.7 pts crew edge

Geelong get the cleaner crew-history read

Geelong sit +5.5 pts vs line with this appointed crew blend, while Gold Coast sit -5.2; the gap points Geelong's way.

GEE +5.5 GCS -5.2 197 team samples

Round 14  ·  Thu 11 Jun, 7:30 PM AEST

Western Bulldogs v Adelaide

Marvel Stadium

Ladder shaping Thursday under the roof, Dogs scrape home by a kick

Tip

55%
Western Bulldogs

Coin toss confidence ~4 pts Coin toss

Form

Adelaide big edge Recent margin form is running 24.0 pts better.

Injury

Adelaide solid edge Outs currently sit 7-6 across the two squads.
Coin toss AI dissent

Round 14  ·  Fri 12 Jun, 7:40 PM AEST

Geelong v Gold Coast

Kardinia Park

Cats chase revenge for Round 1 after back to back losses at home

Tip

84%
Geelong

High confidence ~23 pts

Rub of the green

Geelong big edge Geelong +11.2 pts · GEE +5.6 · GCS -5.6

Umpire edge

Geelong big edge Crew club residual signal 10.4 pts over 197 samples; context only.
AI agrees

Round 14  ·  Sat 13 Jun, 1:15 PM AEST

Melbourne v Essendon

MCG

Demons out for Gather Round revenge in a wet MCG slog

Tip

85%
Melbourne

High confidence ~33 pts

Form

Melbourne big edge Recent margin form is running 22.8 pts better.

Umpire edge

Essendon big edge Crew club residual signal 6.9 pts over 100 samples; context only.
AI agrees 🌧 Wet

Round 14  ·  Sat 13 Jun, 2:15 PM AWST

North Melbourne v West Coast

Optus Stadium

Roos cop a 124 point belting then bounce back in Perth

Tip

70%
North Melbourne

High confidence ~26 pts

Form

West Coast big edge Recent margin form is running 56.2 pts better.

Injury

North Melbourne solid edge Outs currently sit 6-10 across the two squads.
AI dissent

Round 14  ·  Sat 13 Jun, 7:05 PM ACST

Port Adelaide v Sydney

Adelaide Oval

Swans defence stretched but class holds up in the rain

Tip

60%
Sydney

Medium confidence ~6 pts

Form

Sydney big edge Recent margin form is running 37.5 pts better.

Travel / turnaround

Port Adelaide big edge interstate travel · travel turnaround
AI dissent 🌧 Wet 💀 Bogey: SYD

Round 14  ·  Sun 14 Jun, 1:10 PM AEST

Richmond v Brisbane Lions

Blundstone Arena

Lions back in the winners circle and set to roll Richmond in Hobart

Tip

88%
Brisbane Lions

High confidence ~49 pts

Form

Brisbane Lions big edge Recent margin form is running 14.0 pts better.

Rub of the green

Brisbane Lions big edge Brisbane Lions +4.1 pts · RIC -2.5 · BRL +1.6
AI agrees

Round 14  ·  Sun 14 Jun, 3:15 PM AEST

St Kilda v GWS

Marvel Stadium

Saints nearly pinched one at the SCG so back them to snag this at home

Tip

54%
St Kilda

Coin toss confidence ~12 pts Coin toss

Form

GWS big edge Recent margin form is running 43.0 pts better.

Travel / turnaround

GWS big edge interstate travel · rest differential
Coin toss AI dissent