AFL Insights

Tips

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Tip difficulty Manageable Pass mark 6.10/8 tips (7th easiest so far this season)

Highest confidence

Carlton over Essendon

85% confidence · ~41 pts

Closest calls

Tightest decisions
COL v MEL · 57% WCE v PORT · 57%

What stands out

Round storylines

Record streak
Fremantle
28.3

Fremantle's streak is one of the least dominant 11+ runs of the past 20 years by margin

Fremantle's 11 wins have come at an average margin of 28.3 points - 14th of the 17 winning streaks of 11+ games since 2007, and the 4th-lowest. The run includes two single-digit escapes (2 points away to Adelaide, 6 points away to Collingwood) and was built largely on the road, with 6 of the 11 wins away from home. By contrast the most dominant streaks averaged 50-60+ points (Geelong 2008 60.9, Collingwood 2011 57.6, Geelong 2007 50.1). The three completed streaks with margins as low as or lower than Fremantle's - Melbourne 2020 (24.7), Port Adelaide 2023 (23.4) and Collingwood 2022 (10.5) - all failed to reach a grand final.

Sample: 17
Tight-game quirk
Western Bulldogs
5-0 inside 6 points

Western Bulldogs keep cashing the six-point finishers

They are 5-0 in games decided by 6 points or less.

5 close games net +5

Round 13  ·  Thu 4 Jun, 7:00 PM ACST

Adelaide v Geelong

Adelaide Oval

Cats own this rivalry with five straight, no reason to stop now

Tip

66%
Geelong

Medium confidence ~18 pts

Travel / turnaround

Adelaide big edge interstate travel · rest differential

Venue

Adelaide big edge true home ground · fortress edge
AI agrees 🌧 Wet

Round 13  ·  Fri 5 Jun, 7:40 PM AEST

Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs

MCG

Hawks own the Bulldogs five straight and Friday night won't change that

Tip

71%
Hawthorn

High confidence ~27 pts

Weather

Western Bulldogs big edge Wet-weather setup slightly suits this side.

Rub of the green

Western Bulldogs solid edge Western Bulldogs +3.4 pts · HAW -1.8 · WBD +1.6
AI agrees 🌧 Wet

Round 13  ·  Sat 6 Jun, 12:15 PM AWST

North Melbourne v Fremantle

Hands Oval

Dockers sitting pretty on top and Roos missing too many bodies

Tip

80%
Fremantle

High confidence ~15 pts

Form

Fremantle big edge Recent margin form is running 58.0 pts better.

Travel / turnaround

Fremantle big edge interstate travel · travel turnaround · rest differential
AI agrees

Round 13  ·  Sat 6 Jun, 5:15 PM AEST

Gold Coast v Brisbane Lions

Carrara

Suns own this QLD derby, Lions missing too many big names

Tip

70%
Gold Coast

High confidence ~24 pts

Form

Gold Coast big edge Recent margin form is running 50.2 pts better.

Injury

Gold Coast big edge Outs currently sit 3-12 across the two squads.
AI agrees

Round 13  ·  Sat 6 Jun, 6:15 PM AWST

West Coast v Port Adelaide

Optus Stadium

Port Adelaide bring three fresh faces and a habit of beating West Coast lately

Tip

57%
Port Adelaide

Coin toss confidence ~6 pts

Form

West Coast big edge Recent margin form is running 16.8 pts better.

Umpire edge

Port Adelaide big edge Crew club residual signal 7.6 pts over 88 samples; context only.
AI dissent

Round 13  ·  Sun 7 Jun, 3:15 PM AEST

Sydney v St Kilda

SCG

Swans welcome Mills back and that SCG edge should do the rest

Tip

79%
Sydney

High confidence ~19 pts

Form

Sydney big edge Recent margin form is running 44.0 pts better.

Umpire edge

Sydney solid edge Crew underdog rate signal 6.0 ppts over 395 samples; context only.
AI agrees Flat-track bully: SYD

Round 13  ·  Sun 7 Jun, 7:20 PM AEST

Essendon v Carlton

MCG

Blues back their stand-in coach to roll the Bombers under lights

Tip

85%
Carlton

High confidence ~41 pts

Form

Carlton big edge Recent margin form is running 36.0 pts better.

Injury

Carlton big edge Outs currently sit 17-7 across the two squads.
AI agrees Flat-track bully: CAR

Round 13  ·  Mon 8 Jun, 3:15 PM AEST

Collingwood v Melbourne

MCG

Pies own this matchup, five straight over the Dees says trust the trend

Tip

57%
Collingwood

Coin toss confidence ~9 pts

Form

Melbourne big edge Recent margin form is running 18.2 pts better.

Injury

Collingwood solid edge Collingwood 2.2 pts lost vs Melbourne 7.7.
AI agrees 💀 Bogey: MEL