AFL Insights

Tips

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Tip difficulty Manageable Pass mark 5.15/7 tips (4th easiest so far this season)

Roughie of the week

Collingwood over Western Bulldogs

$2.44 · model 60% vs market 39%

Highest confidence

Sydney over Richmond

88% confidence · ~59 pts

Closest calls

1 coin toss
BRL v FRE · 55%

What stands out

Round storylines

Score record
GWS
vs
Brisbane Lions
Strong

GWS's 86-point Q3 vs Brisbane is the all-time AFL record for most points in a third quarter

GWS scored 86 points (14.2) in the third quarter against Brisbane Lions in Round 12, 2026 at Sydney Showground, going from 9.5 (59) at half-time to 23.7 (145) at three-quarter time. AFL Tables records this as both the GWS club record and the all-time AFL record for most points scored in a third quarter. It surpasses Essendon's 82-point Q3 (13.4) against Western Bulldogs in Round 22, 1982 — a record that had stood for 44 years.

Sample: 19
Bellwether
Brisbane Lions
vs
Fremantle
+47 pp win-rate swing

Dayne Zorko has been a barometer for Brisbane Lions

Brisbane Lions are 24-9-1 in 34 games with him since 2025, but 1-3 in 4 without him.

with: 24-9-1 without: 1-3 99 rating

Round 12  ·  Thu 28 May, 7:30 PM AEST

St Kilda v Hawthorn

Marvel Stadium

Saints missing eight hurts, Hawks fresher legs should do the rest

Tip

69%
Hawthorn

Medium confidence ~23 pts

Form

St Kilda big edge Recent margin form is running 15.2 pts better.

Injury

Hawthorn solid edge Outs currently sit 8-2 across the two squads.
AI dissent Flat-track bully: HAW

Round 12  ·  Fri 29 May, 7:40 PM AEST

Carlton v Geelong

MCG

Cats riding hot after the Swans scalp should roll the Blues

Tip

75%
Geelong

High confidence ~18 pts

Form

Geelong big edge Recent margin form is running 43.8 pts better.

Umpire edge

Geelong big edge Crew club residual signal 8.4 pts over 184 samples; context only.
AI agrees

Round 12  ·  Sat 30 May, 1:15 PM AEST

Sydney v Richmond

SCG

Richmond back at the SCG for the first time since 2022 and it shows

Tip

88%
Sydney

High confidence ~59 pts

Rub of the green

Sydney big edge Sydney +8.6 pts · SYD +3.2 · RIC -5.4

Travel / turnaround

Sydney big edge interstate travel · travel turnaround · rest differential
Flat-track bully: SYD

Round 12  ·  Sat 30 May, 4:15 PM AEST

Brisbane Lions v Fremantle

Gabba

Fagan reads the riot act and the Gabba bogey bites Freo again

Tip

55%
Brisbane Lions

Coin toss confidence ~11 pts Coin toss

Form

Fremantle big edge Recent margin form is running 36.0 pts better.

Travel / turnaround

Brisbane Lions big edge interstate travel · travel turnaround · rest differential
Coin toss AI agrees 💀 Bogey: FRE

Round 12  ·  Sat 30 May, 7:35 PM AEST

Western Bulldogs v Collingwood

Marvel Stadium

Pies scrape home under the Marvel roof without Pendlebury cam to prove it

Tip

60%
Collingwood

Medium confidence ~2 pts

Form

Western Bulldogs solid edge Recent margin form is running 7.8 pts better.

Injury

Collingwood solid edge Outs currently sit 5-8 across the two squads.
AI dissent

Round 12  ·  Sun 31 May, 2:45 PM ACST

Melbourne v GWS

Traeger Park

GWS broke scoring records last week but Alice Springs suits Melbourne

Tip

55%
Melbourne

Coin toss confidence ~6 pts

Rub of the green

GWS big edge GWS +7.4 pts · MEL -3.1 · GWS +4.3

Umpire edge

GWS solid edge Crew club residual signal 4.4 pts over 161 samples; context only.
AI dissent

Round 12  ·  Sun 31 May, 5:20 PM AWST

West Coast v Essendon

Optus Stadium

Eagles make Essendon's coaching chaos worse on a wet Perth night

Tip

70%
West Coast

High confidence ~19 pts

Form

West Coast big edge Recent margin form is running 25.8 pts better.

Injury

West Coast big edge Outs currently sit 8-16 across the two squads.
AI agrees 🌧 Wet