AFL Insights

Tips

← Prev 2026 Round 11
Tip difficulty Tricky Pass mark 6.90/9 tips (2nd hardest so far this season)

Roughie of the week

Gold Coast over North Melbourne

$8.60 · model 48% vs market 11%

Highest confidence

Collingwood over West Coast

88% confidence · ~4 pts

Closest calls

1 coin toss
NTH v GCS · 52%

What stands out

Round storylines

Travel quirk
Melbourne
100 pp state split

Melbourne are a different side once they stay local

They are 7-0 in the same state and 0-3 interstate.

The fixture keeps them in the version of themselves that has shown up more often.

0-3 interstate 7-0 same-state
Bellwether
Western Bulldogs
vs
Melbourne
+66 pp win-rate swing

Tim English has been a barometer for Western Bulldogs

Western Bulldogs are 19-10 in 29 games with him since 2025, but 0-4 in 4 without him.

He is in this week's availability frame (test), so that split matters more than usual.

with: 19-10 without: 0-4 90 rating

Round 11  ·  Thu 21 May, 7:30 PM AEST

Hawthorn v Adelaide

UTAS Stadium

Tip

64%
Hawthorn

Medium confidence ~17 pts

Form

Adelaide big edge Recent margin form is running 14.8 pts better.

Injury

Adelaide small edge Outs currently sit 3-2 across the two squads.
Flat-track bully: HAW

Round 11  ·  Fri 22 May, 7:40 PM AEST

Richmond v Essendon

MCG

Tip

80%
Essendon

High confidence ~29 pts

Form

Richmond big edge Recent margin form is running 20.5 pts better.

Injury

Essendon big edge Outs currently sit 17-11 across the two squads.

Round 11  ·  Fri 22 May, 6:30 PM AWST

Fremantle v St Kilda

Optus Stadium

Tip

85%
Fremantle

High confidence ~29 pts

Form

St Kilda big edge Recent margin form is running 15.8 pts better.

Travel / turnaround

Fremantle big edge interstate travel · travel turnaround

Round 11  ·  Sat 23 May, 1:15 PM AEST

North Melbourne v Gold Coast

Marvel Stadium

Tip

52%
North Melbourne

Coin toss confidence ~40 pts Coin toss

Form

Gold Coast big edge Recent margin form is running 39.2 pts better.

Venue

North Melbourne solid edge true home ground
Coin toss

Round 11  ·  Sat 23 May, 4:15 PM AEST

Geelong v Sydney

Kardinia Park

Tip

66%
Geelong

Medium confidence ~1 pts

Venue

Geelong big edge true home ground · fortress edge

Injury

Geelong solid edge Geelong 2.9 pts lost vs Sydney 7.2.

Round 11  ·  Sat 23 May, 4:35 PM AEST

Collingwood v West Coast

MCG

Tip

88%
Collingwood

High confidence ~4 pts

Form

Collingwood big edge Recent margin form is running 36.0 pts better.

Travel / turnaround

Collingwood solid edge interstate travel · rest differential

Round 11  ·  Sat 23 May, 7:05 PM ACST

Port Adelaide v Carlton

Adelaide Oval

Tip

59%
Port Adelaide

Medium confidence ~5 pts

Venue

Port Adelaide big edge true home ground · fortress edge

Form

Port Adelaide solid edge Recent margin form is running 13.5 pts better.

Round 11  ·  Sun 24 May, 12:30 PM AEST

GWS v Brisbane Lions

ENGIE Stadium

Tip

88%
Brisbane Lions

High confidence ~3 pts

Form

Brisbane Lions big edge Recent margin form is running 25.5 pts better.

Travel / turnaround

GWS big edge interstate travel · travel turnaround · rest differential

Round 11  ·  Sun 24 May, 3:15 PM AEST

Western Bulldogs v Melbourne

Marvel Stadium

Tip

63%
Melbourne

Medium confidence ~2 pts

Form

Melbourne big edge Recent margin form is running 49.0 pts better.

Venue

Western Bulldogs solid edge true home ground