AFL Insights

Tips

← Prev 2026 Round 11 Next →
Tip difficulty Tricky Pass mark 6.66/9 tips (3rd hardest so far this season)

Roughie of the week

Carlton over Port Adelaide

$2.68 · model 41% vs market 35%

Highest confidence

Collingwood over West Coast

88% confidence · ~52 pts

Closest calls

Tightest decisions
GWS v BRL · 58% PORT v CAR · 59%

What stands out

Round storylines

Player watch
Collingwood
34.64 disp per 100% TOG

Pendlebury's disposal rate per minute in 2026 exceeds his own peak-era average

Across his full 432-game career (2006–2026), Pendlebury's TOG-adjusted disposal rate peaked between 2009–2019 at 34.42 disposals per 100% time-on-ground. In 2026, across 7 games at age 35, he is averaging 34.64 — above that peak-era benchmark. His raw numbers have fallen only because his minutes have dropped from ~85% TOG to ~70%, not because his efficiency has.

432-game sample 2026: 34.64 2009-19: 34.42
Travel quirk
Melbourne
100 pp state split

Melbourne are a different side once they stay local

They are 7-0 in the same state and 0-3 interstate.

0-3 interstate 7-0 same-state

Round 11  ·  Thu 21 May, 7:30 PM AEST

Hawthorn v Adelaide

UTAS Stadium

Cosy Thursday night at UTAS suits the Hawks just fine

Tip

64%
Hawthorn

Medium confidence ~14 pts

Form

Adelaide big edge Recent margin form is running 14.8 pts better.

Injury

Adelaide small edge Outs currently sit 3-4 across the two squads.
AI agrees

Round 11  ·  Fri 22 May, 7:40 PM AEST

Richmond v Essendon

MCG

Dreamtime at the G but both mobs chasing the wooden spoon, Bombers edge it

Tip

63%
Essendon

Medium confidence ~25 pts

Form

Richmond big edge Recent margin form is running 20.5 pts better.

Injury

Essendon solid edge Outs currently sit 16-12 across the two squads.
AI dissent

Round 11  ·  Fri 22 May, 6:30 PM AWST

Fremantle v St Kilda

Optus Stadium

Walyalup stay unbeaten and settle the score with Ross Lyon

Tip

77%
Fremantle

High confidence ~13 pts

Form

St Kilda big edge Recent margin form is running 15.8 pts better.

Travel / turnaround

Fremantle big edge interstate travel · travel turnaround
AI agrees

Round 11  ·  Sat 23 May, 1:15 PM AEST

North Melbourne v Gold Coast

Marvel Stadium

Suns sit fourth for a reason, expect a tight Marvel road win

Tip

63%
Gold Coast

Medium confidence ~9 pts

Form

Gold Coast big edge Recent margin form is running 39.2 pts better.

Umpire edge

Gold Coast solid edge Crew underdog rate signal 4.3 ppts over 455 samples; context only.
AI agrees

Round 11  ·  Sat 23 May, 4:15 PM AEST

Geelong v Sydney

Kardinia Park

Cats claw into the top four race at fortress Kardinia

Tip

66%
Geelong

Medium confidence ~18 pts

Venue

Geelong big edge true home ground · fortress edge

Rub of the green

Geelong solid edge Geelong +3.3 pts · GEE +5.7 · SYD +2.4
AI agrees

Round 11  ·  Sat 23 May, 4:35 PM AEST

Collingwood v West Coast

MCG

Pendles goes gold for 433 and the Pies should feast at the G

Tip

88%
Collingwood

High confidence ~52 pts

Form

Collingwood big edge Recent margin form is running 36.0 pts better.

Umpire edge

Collingwood solid edge Crew club residual signal 3.0 pts over 92 samples; context only.

Round 11  ·  Sat 23 May, 7:05 PM ACST

Port Adelaide v Carlton

Adelaide Oval

Power grind one out at home while Carlton's outs pile up

Tip

59%
Port Adelaide

Medium confidence ~5 pts

Umpire edge

Port Adelaide big edge Crew club residual signal 8.5 pts over 89 samples; context only.

Rub of the green

Port Adelaide big edge Port Adelaide +4.3 pts · PORT +0.2 · CAR -4.1
AI dissent

Round 11  ·  Sun 24 May, 12:30 PM AEST

GWS v Brisbane Lions

ENGIE Stadium

Lions grind one out while GWS juggle eleven outs at home

Tip

58%
Brisbane Lions

Medium confidence ~12 pts

Form

Brisbane Lions big edge Recent margin form is running 25.5 pts better.

Rub of the green

GWS big edge GWS +5.4 pts · GWS +3.4 · BRL -2.0
🌧 Wet

Round 11  ·  Sun 24 May, 3:15 PM AEST

Western Bulldogs v Melbourne

Marvel Stadium

Bulldogs down ten bodies and Melbourne smell the margin

Tip

80%
Melbourne

High confidence ~18 pts

Form

Melbourne big edge Recent margin form is running 49.0 pts better.

Injury

Melbourne big edge Outs currently sit 10-8 across the two squads.
AI agrees