AFL Insights

Tips

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Tip difficulty Manageable Pass mark 5.65/7 tips (Easiest so far this season)

Roughie of the week

Essendon over North Melbourne

$2.75 · model 37% vs market 35%

Highest confidence

Carlton over West Coast

88% confidence · ~33 pts

Closest calls

1 coin toss
BRL v SYD · 51%

What stands out

Round storylines

Bet recommendation
Carlton
vs
West Coast
$1.91 Sportsbet price

Carlton -31.5

The model rates Carlton -31.5 at 65.2% against a 52.4% market price. It cleared the validated gates and has been locked as this round's paper bet.

Line +12.8pp model edge $5 paper stake
Match angle
Port Adelaide
5 defeats By total of 11pts

Port Adelaide: five losses by a combined 11 points in 2026

Port Adelaide have lost five games this season by margins of 1, 2, 2, 3, and 3 points — a combined 11 points across those five defeats. Those losses came against West Coast (R3, -2), Hawthorn (R6, -3), Adelaide (R8, -1), Western Bulldogs (R9, -2), and Sydney (R14, -3). Had Port won even three of those five, they would be inside the top eight. Their percentage of ~101% after 15 rounds is historically strong for a team sitting 15th.

Sample: 5
Travel quirk
North Melbourne
58 pp state split

North Melbourne are a different side once they stay local

They are 6-2 in the same state and 1-5 interstate.

1-5 interstate 6-2 same-state

Round 16  ·  Thu 25 Jun, 7:30 PM AEST

Brisbane Lions v Sydney

Gabba

Lions back their Gabba den in a post-bye arm wrestle with Sydney

Tip

51%
Brisbane Lions

Coin toss confidence ~2 pts Coin toss

Form

Sydney big edge Recent margin form is running 32.2 pts better.

Rub of the green

Brisbane Lions big edge Brisbane Lions +6.2 pts · BRL +2.6 · SYD -3.7
Coin toss AI agrees

Round 16  ·  Fri 26 Jun, 7:40 PM AEST

Hawthorn v GWS

MCG

Hawks flex MCG muscle as GWS limp in short-handed

Tip

70%
Hawthorn

High confidence ~12 pts

Travel / turnaround

Hawthorn solid edge interstate travel · rest differential

Venue

Hawthorn solid edge true home ground · fortress edge
AI dissent Flat-track bully: HAW

Round 16  ·  Sat 27 Jun, 1:15 PM AEST

Carlton v West Coast

Marvel Stadium

Blues riding high under Fraser, five straight says trust the streak

Tip

88%
Carlton

High confidence ~33 pts

Umpire edge

Carlton big edge Crew club residual signal 7.6 pts over 110 samples; context only.

Rub of the green

Carlton big edge Carlton +7.5 pts · CAR +4.7 · WCE -2.8
AI agrees

Round 16  ·  Sat 27 Jun, 4:15 PM AEST

Collingwood v Richmond

MCG

Pies wobbling at 11th but Richmond's 2-12 makes this a comfy afternoon

Tip

88%
Collingwood

High confidence ~33 pts

Form

Collingwood big edge Recent margin form is running 45.2 pts better.

Umpire edge

Collingwood solid edge Crew underdog rate signal 5.4 ppts over 461 samples; context only.
AI agrees

Round 16  ·  Sat 27 Jun, 7:05 PM ACST

Port Adelaide v Adelaide

Adelaide Oval

Showdown form rarely matters but seven Power outs tilt it to Adelaide

Tip

80%
Adelaide

High confidence ~23 pts

Form

Adelaide big edge Recent margin form is running 31.0 pts better.

Umpire edge

Adelaide big edge Crew club residual signal 9.2 pts over 156 samples; context only.
AI agrees Flat-track bully: ADE

Round 16  ·  Sun 28 Jun, 3:15 PM AEST

North Melbourne v Essendon

Marvel Stadium

Bombers off the bye but Roos smell blood against a one-win side

Tip

63%
North Melbourne

Medium confidence ~13 pts

Travel / turnaround

Essendon big edge rest differential

Injury

North Melbourne solid edge Outs currently sit 6-10 across the two squads.
AI agrees

Round 16  ·  Sun 28 Jun, 3:10 PM AWST

Fremantle v Gold Coast

Optus Stadium

Dockers out for finals payback and the Suns look cooked

Tip

86%
Fremantle

High confidence ~27 pts

Form

Fremantle big edge Recent margin form is running 71.5 pts better.

Weather

Fremantle big edge Wet-weather setup slightly suits this side.
AI agrees 🌧 Wet