Roughie of the week
North Melbourne over Port Adelaide$2.96 · model 36% vs market 32%
Highest confidence
Carlton over Richmond88% confidence · ~41 pts
Closest calls
1 coin tossWhat stands out
Geelong
Geelong keep getting the better whistle at home to interstate sides
This season, they are 3-0-1 on free-kick count at home-state venues against interstate sides, running +6.2 a game.
2026 is the AFL's chalkiest season in 13+ years - and it isn't because of blowouts
Through Round 17, market underdogs have won just 24.6% of games (33 of 134) - the lowest upset rate since at least 2013, when the long-run average is about 30.5%. The twist: this is simultaneously the closest season in the window, with 32.1% of games decided by 12 points or fewer (vs a ~25% norm). Favourites aren't winning by more; they're winning the tight ones, converting coin-flip games at an unusually high clip.
Round 17 · Thu 2 Jul, 7:30 PM AEST
Cats fresh off the bye and keen to flip last years Grand Final script
Tip
72%Travel / turnaround
Geelong big edge interstate travel · rest differentialVenue
Geelong big edge true home ground · fortress edgeRound 17 · Fri 3 Jul, 7:40 PM AEST
Sydney shaky but the SCG fortress holds off rested Bulldogs
Tip
70%Form
Sydney big edge Recent margin form is running 25.2 pts better.Travel / turnaround
Western Bulldogs big edge interstate travel · rest differentialRound 17 · Fri 3 Jul, 6:10 PM AWST
Friday night under lights and everyone is asking who approved this timeslot
Tip
80%Form
Adelaide big edge Recent margin form is running 19.8 pts better.Umpire edge
Adelaide big edge Crew club residual signal 12.6 pts over 77 samples; context only.Round 17 · Sat 4 Jul, 1:15 PM AEST
Hawks catch Melbourne cold off the bye at Launceston
Tip
64%Form
Hawthorn big edge Recent margin form is running 22.2 pts better.Injury
Melbourne solid edge Outs currently sit 9-8 across the two squads.Round 17 · Sat 4 Jul, 1:35 PM AEST
Freo look primed to pocket the Tommy Sheridan cup at Manuka
Tip
80%Form
Fremantle big edge Recent margin form is running 51.2 pts better.Injury
Fremantle big edge Outs currently sit 12-0 across the two squads.Round 17 · Sat 4 Jul, 4:15 PM AEST
Suns snap that five game skid at Carrara by a kick
Tip
54%Form
Collingwood big edge Recent margin form is running 48.0 pts better.Rub of the green
Collingwood big edge Collingwood +4.8 pts · GCS -3.8 · COL +0.9Round 17 · Sat 4 Jul, 7:35 PM AEST
Carlton chase win seven straight to square the ledger at the G
Tip
88%Form
Carlton big edge Recent margin form is running 73.2 pts better.Weather
Carlton big edge Wet-weather setup slightly suits this side.Round 17 · Sun 5 Jul, 3:15 PM AEST
Saints smell blood against a Bombers side bleeding ten outs
Tip
80%Rub of the green
St Kilda big edge St Kilda +9.4 pts · ESS -5.5 · STK +3.9Injury
St Kilda solid edge Outs currently sit 10-6 across the two squads.Round 17 · Sun 5 Jul, 4:10 PM ACST
Adelaide Oval fortress gives Port the edge over travelling Roos
Tip
64%Form
Port Adelaide big edge Recent margin form is running 21.5 pts better.Venue
Port Adelaide big edge true home ground · fortress edge
