AFL Insights

Tips

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Tip difficulty Tricky Pass mark 7.00/9 tips (6th hardest so far this season)

Roughie of the week

Port Adelaide over St Kilda

$2.39 · model 46% vs market 40%

Highest confidence

Melbourne over Richmond

89% confidence · ~48 pts

Closest calls

1 coin toss
STK v PORT · 54%

What stands out

Round storylines

Matchup record
Adelaide
vs
Gold Coast
16-5 all-time vs Gold Coast

Adelaide have owned this all-time matchup

Adelaide are 16-5 (76.2%) against Gold Coast across 21 meetings.

21 all-time meetings 76.2% win rate Win-loss records
Fixture cluster
Essendon
5 of 6 top-8 opponents next up

Essendon walk into one of the rougher top-eight clusters left

5 of their next 6 are against sides currently in the top 8.

1 outside top 8 5 in their home state 1 interstate

Round 18  ·  Thu 9 Jul, 6:10 PM AWST

Fremantle v Sydney

Optus Stadium

Freo's streak is done but a top of the table Thursday bounce back looks on

Tip

74%
Fremantle

High confidence ~12 pts

Form

Fremantle big edge Recent margin form is running 41.5 pts better.

Travel / turnaround

Fremantle big edge interstate travel · travel turnaround · rest differential
AI agrees 🌧 Wet

Round 18  ·  Fri 10 Jul, 7:40 PM AEST

Collingwood v North Melbourne

Marvel Stadium

Pies ride the MRO green rub to edge the Roos under the roof

Tip

71%
Collingwood

High confidence ~15 pts

Form

Collingwood solid edge Recent margin form is running 10.0 pts better.

Umpire edge

Collingwood solid edge Crew club residual signal 4.1 pts over 175 samples; context only.
AI agrees

Round 18  ·  Sat 11 Jul, 1:15 PM AEST

St Kilda v Port Adelaide

Marvel Stadium

Saints rode that Essendon training run into form and the Marvel roof suits them nicely

Tip

54%
St Kilda

Coin toss confidence ~4 pts Coin toss

Form

St Kilda solid edge Recent margin form is running 8.5 pts better.

Venue

St Kilda solid edge true home ground
Coin toss AI dissent

Round 18  ·  Sat 11 Jul, 4:15 PM AEST

GWS v Geelong

ENGIE Stadium

Cats back their road form despite GWS playing giant killer lately

Tip

60%
Geelong

Medium confidence ~11 pts

Form

Geelong solid edge Recent margin form is running 9.2 pts better.

Injury

Geelong solid edge Outs currently sit 13-2 across the two squads.
AI dissent 💀 Bogey: GEE

Round 18  ·  Sat 11 Jul, 7:35 PM AEST

Carlton v Hawthorn

MCG

Seven straight wins is a story but the Hawks end it in the wet

Tip

63%
Hawthorn

Medium confidence ~12 pts

Form

Carlton big edge Recent margin form is running 23.5 pts better.

Rub of the green

Hawthorn big edge Hawthorn +9.0 pts · CAR -3.1 · HAW +5.9
AI dissent 🌧 Wet

Round 18  ·  Sat 11 Jul, 7:40 PM ACST

Adelaide v Gold Coast

Adelaide Oval

Suns missing seven makes Adelaide Oval feel even colder tonight

Tip

85%
Adelaide

High confidence ~15 pts

Form

Adelaide big edge Recent margin form is running 47.8 pts better.

Rub of the green

Adelaide big edge Adelaide +5.9 pts · ADE +2.3 · GCS -3.6
AI agrees 🌧 Wet

Round 18  ·  Sun 12 Jul, 1:10 PM AEST

Western Bulldogs v West Coast

Marvel Stadium

Eagles battling ten outs so the Dogs should romp home under the roof

Tip

71%
Western Bulldogs

High confidence ~19 pts

Injury

West Coast big edge Outs currently sit 4-10 across the two squads.

Umpire edge

Western Bulldogs solid edge Crew club residual signal 5.6 pts over 74 samples; context only.
Flat-track bully: WBD

Round 18  ·  Sun 12 Jul, 3:15 PM AEST

Melbourne v Richmond

MCG

Demons own this rivalry, five straight says couch confidence is earned

Tip

89%
Melbourne

High confidence ~48 pts

Form

Melbourne big edge Recent margin form is running 41.8 pts better.

Injury

Melbourne big edge Outs currently sit 5-10 across the two squads.
AI agrees 🌧 Wet

Round 18  ·  Sun 12 Jul, 4:40 PM AEST

Brisbane Lions v Essendon

Gabba

Lions to feast at the Gabba as Essendon cop a Sunday mauling

Tip

88%
Brisbane Lions

High confidence ~61 pts

Form

Brisbane Lions big edge Recent margin form is running 65.5 pts better.

Injury

Brisbane Lions solid edge Outs currently sit 4-8 across the two squads.