| Match | Tip | Win chance | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| SYD v FREFri 18 Sep, 7:40 PM AEST | Fremantle | 63% | 12 ptsFirst-game margin |
| HAW v BRLSat 19 Sep, 5:15 PM AEST | Brisbane Lions | 51% | 2 pts |
The round’s question Can Hawthorn overturn the closest call? Brisbane Lions start at 51%.
Highest confidence
Fremantle over Sydney63% confidence · ~12 pts
Closest calls
1 coin tossPreliminary Finals · Fri 18 Sep, 7:40 PM AEST
Twelve likely outs leave Sydney thin for Freo's rare prelim shot
Tip
63%Form
Sydney big edge Recent margin form is running 67.5 pts better.Injury
Fremantle big edge Outs currently sit 12-2 across the two squads.Preliminary Finals · Sat 19 Sep, 5:15 PM AEST
Lions chase a three-peat against the dynasty that last did it
Tip
51%Form
Brisbane Lions big edge Recent margin form is running 19.5 pts better.Rub of the green
Brisbane Lions big edge Brisbane Lions +4.2 pts · HAW +2.8 · BRL +7.0What stands out
Hawthorn
Brisbane Lions
Brisbane were belted twice by 75+ this year - a hole almost no premier escapes
Brisbane lost by 78 to GWS (R11) and 76 to Carlton (R21) in 2026. Only twice in VFL/AFL history has a side lost two games by 75+ in a season and still won the flag - most recently Hawthorn in 1991.
The model and market back the road team in both prelims - history says that's a long shot
The host has won 29 of the last 40 preliminary finals (73%, 2006-2025), yet the tip model and bookmakers both favour the travelling team in each 2026 prelim - Fremantle at the SCG and Brisbane at the MCG. The road team has won both prelims in a single season only twice in 20 years: 2016, and 2020 in the COVID hub season when home/away was largely artificial.
