The umpire from Freo's only other Grand Final is back – and the whistle hasn't been kind

Brett Rosebury, reportedly set for his 10th Grand Final, also umpired Fremantle's only previous Grand Final in 2013. In the last 20 years, Fremantle have won the free-kick count just 7 times in 29 interstate games with Rosebury on the crew (22 lost), running -3.1 a game versus -1.6 with other crews.

Losing week one is how AFL three-peats get done

Both AFL-era three-peats were completed by teams that lost their first final: Brisbane (lost the 2003 qualifying final to Collingwood) and Hawthorn (lost the 2015 qualifying final to West Coast). Brisbane lost week one in 2025 and again in 2026.

The market underrates Brisbane when it writes them off – and overrates them otherwise

Since the start of 2025, Brisbane are 8-3 as underdogs against only 4.1 wins implied by closing odds, covering the line 9 times out of 11 – including last year's preliminary final and Grand Final. As home-and-away favourites they are 26-11 against 28.1 expected wins, covering just 17 of 38 and running 11.6 points a game behind the line. On Saturday they start favourites.

Claude's Call: Brisbane by 11 – but if it's close at three-quarter time, back the Dockers

Brisbane by 11 points, roughly a 57/43 chance – close to both the market and the model. The Lions have the better recent form, a 6-3 MCG finals record since 2022 against Fremantle's single MCG finals win in 20 years, and a fourth straight Grand Final under their belts. But Fremantle beat them by 25 in round 12, get an extra day's rest, and are the league's best comeback side, while Brisbane are 0-7 this year when trailing at the last change. If the Dockers are within a goal or two at three-quarter time, the momentum swings their way. Opinion only, not betting advice.

Brisbane turned the MCG from graveyard to fortress; Freo are 1-3 in finals there

For most of the last 20 years the MCG was a graveyard for Brisbane: 4-22-1 up to 2020. Since 2022 they are 11-9 there and 6-3 in MCG finals, including four straight finals wins. Fremantle are 1-3 in MCG finals in the last 20 years, their only win the 2012 elimination final against Geelong.

Freo's 40 points: the lowest finals score by a Grand Finalist in the last 20 years

Fremantle's 5.10 (40) in the qualifying final is the lowest score by any Grand Final team in an earlier final that season in the last 20 years – below Geelong's 42 in 2020, when quarters were shortened. They followed it with 120 the next week.

Brisbane lost by 40+ five times this year – the most by any Grand Finalist in the last 20 years

Brisbane's 2026 losses include 44, 41, 78, 76 and 53-point defeats. No other Grand Final team in the last 20 years lost by 40+ more than four times (Richmond 2019, who won the flag). Their average losing margin is 40.5 points.

Brisbane's edge is the second quarter; Fremantle come home late

Both clubs own the premiership quarter in 2026 (Fremantle +9.8, Brisbane +7.6), but the rest of the game splits them. Brisbane win second quarters by 4.3 points on average while Fremantle barely break even (+0.7). After the last change it flips: Fremantle average +8.3 in final quarters, Brisbane +2.7. Fremantle's second-half margin (+18.1) is almost double Brisbane's (+10.2).