Grand Final
Recommendation
Brisbane Lions 57%
Margin: ~6 pts
Wet MCG Grand Final narrows Brisbane's edge more than the market thinks
15mm rain and 17kph wind compress scoring and negate Brisbane's TFR superiority. Fremantle's 19-4 ladder record and superior depth (fewer outs) are underweighted by a market pricing a dry-track Lions style.
Neale dodges suspension and Lions look primed to rain on Freo's Grand Final parade
Brisbane Lions get the tip in a Grand Final that splits almost every meaningful indicator. The market price and baseline consensus both lean Brisbane's way, and Lachie Neale's availability after dodging suspension is a significant boost for the Lions' engine room. Brisbane also carry a superior TFR rating (+5.4 to Fremantle's +3.0) and a lopsided 8-4 record across the past 12 meetings with the Dockers, though that historical skew sits outside the model's core drivers. The counterargument is real: Fremantle finished top of the ladder, posted a stronger season-long margin, and carry genuine momentum, while wet conditions at the MCG slightly favour their style. Still, with Brisbane carrying fewer question marks around their midfield nucleus and the market agreeing with the lean, the Lions are projected to shade it by roughly a goal in a genuine coin-flip final.
Match summary
Form · Weather · Travel
Last time they played
Use last result: With caution
Treat the old result cautiously because availability now favours Brisbane.
Umpire crew
Compact historical lean by side
261 combined team-specific lined samples
Biggest scalp
Opponent quality first; margin breaks ties.
Injury / Availability
No tests listed.
Fremantle
Brisbane Lions
Venue performance
Based on 43 completed games at MCG
Season performance
Season trend
OR-R24
After each completed round
Results-anchored score after each completed round
Raw model rating entering each round
Expected points lost entering each round
Season to date
Team selection
