AFL Insights

Tips

← Prev 2026 Round 27
Tip difficulty Straightforward Pass mark 1.50/2 tips (2nd easiest so far this season)

Roughie of the week

Adelaide over Brisbane Lions

$3.48 · model 31% vs market 27%

Highest confidence

Brisbane Lions over Adelaide

69% confidence · ~20 pts

Closest calls

Tightest decisions
FRE v GEE · 57% BRL v ADE · 69%

What stands out

Round storylines

Travel quirk
Brisbane Lions
17 pp state split

Brisbane Lions are a different side once they stay local

They are 9-3 in the same state and 7-5 interstate.

7-5 interstate 9-3 same-state
Win-stat link
Fremantle
15-1 when winning marks inside 50

Fremantle keep turning marks inside 50 wins into actual wins

They are 15-1 when they win marks inside 50, versus 43% when they do not.

94% win rate +7.2 marks inside 50 gap 23 decisive stat games

Semi-Finals  ·  Fri 11 Sep, 6:10 PM AWST

Fremantle v Geelong

Optus Stadium

Fortress Optus gives Freo the finals edge over the Cats

Tip

57%
Fremantle

Coin toss confidence ~12 pts

Form

Geelong big edge Recent margin form is running 55.2 pts better.

Injury

Fremantle big edge Outs currently sit 4-3 across the two squads.

Semi-Finals  ·  Sat 12 Sep, 7:35 PM AEST

Brisbane Lions v Adelaide

Gabba

Lions own the Gabba in finals and three straight there seals it

Tip

69%
Brisbane Lions

Medium confidence ~20 pts

Form

Brisbane Lions big edge Recent margin form is running 14.0 pts better.

Umpire edge

Adelaide big edge Crew club residual signal 11.2 pts over 237 samples; context only.
AI agrees 🌧 Wet