Roughie of the week
Adelaide over Brisbane Lions$3.34 · model 30% vs market 28%
Brisbane Lions are a different side once they stay local
They are 9-3 in the same state and 7-5 interstate.
Highest confidence
Fremantle over Geelong71% confidence · ~10 pts
Closest calls
Tightest decisions
BRL v ADE · 70%
FRE v GEE · 71%
What stands out
Round storylines
Brisbane Lions
17 pp
state split
7-5 interstate
9-3 same-state
Fremantle
Geelong
+6.8
pts crew edge
Geelong get the cleaner crew-history read
Fremantle sit -2.8 pts vs line with this appointed crew blend, while Geelong sit +3.9; the gap points Geelong's way.
FRE -2.8
GEE +3.9
291 team samples
Semi-Finals · Fri 11 Sep, 6:10 PM AWST
Fortress Optus gives Freo the finals edge over the Cats
Tip
71%Form
Geelong big edge Recent margin form is running 55.2 pts better.Injury
Fremantle big edge Outs currently sit 4-6 across the two squads.Semi-Finals · Sat 12 Sep, 7:35 PM AEST
Lions own the Gabba fortress and September nights suit them just fine
Tip
70%Form
Brisbane Lions big edge Recent margin form is running 14.0 pts better.Rub of the green
Brisbane Lions big edge Brisbane Lions +8.5 pts · BRL +7.0 · ADE -1.5