Roughie of the week
Carlton over Geelong$2.64 · model 45% vs market 36%
Highest confidence
Adelaide over Western Bulldogs71% confidence · ~15 pts
Closest calls
Tightest decisionsWhat stands out
Brisbane Lions
Brisbane Lions have been shakier favourites than the market expects
Since 2025, they are 25-11-1 as favourites against 27.6 expected wins from closing odds, and -13.5 points a game against the line.
Fremantle
Hawthorn
Jarman Impey has been a barometer for Hawthorn
Hawthorn are 31-12-2 in 45 games with him since 2025, but 1-3 in 4 without him.
Finals Week 1 · Thu 3 Sep, 6:10 PM AWST
Dockers own Optus in finals, four from five says trust the purple
Tip
69%Rub of the green
Hawthorn big edge Hawthorn +5.1 pts · FRE -1.8 · HAW +3.3Weather
Hawthorn big edge Wet-weather setup slightly suits this side.Finals Week 1 · Fri 4 Sep, 7:40 PM AEST
Cats scrape past Carlton in a wet MCG finals arm wrestle
Tip
55%Form
Geelong big edge Recent margin form is running 16.0 pts better.Rub of the green
Geelong big edge Geelong +4.6 pts · GEE +0.1 · CAR -4.5Finals Week 1 · Sat 5 Sep, 3:15 PM AEST
Lions pack the muscle Sydney's 12 outs can't replace
Tip
69%Form
Sydney big edge Recent margin form is running 27.2 pts better.Injury
Brisbane Lions big edge Outs currently sit 11-4 across the two squads.Finals Week 1 · Sat 5 Sep, 7:05 PM ACST
Adelaide Oval fortress and fresher legs give Crows the finals edge
Tip
71%Form
Adelaide big edge Recent margin form is running 28.0 pts better.Travel / turnaround
Adelaide big edge interstate travel · rest differential
