AFL Insights

Tips

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Tip difficulty Tricky Pass mark 1.30/2 tips (2nd hardest so far this season)

Roughie of the week

Melbourne over Carlton

$2.12 · model 48% vs market 45%

Highest confidence

Western Bulldogs over Collingwood

54% confidence · ~2 pts

Closest calls

2 coin tosses
WBD v COL · 54% MEL v CAR · 52%

What stands out

Round storylines

Record shape
Collingwood
83 pp win-rate split

Collingwood punish the weaker sides, but the better sides bite back

They are 11-0 against the lower half but 1-9-2 against the top half.

1-9-2 vs top half 11-0 vs lower half
Win-stat link
Western Bulldogs
9-1 when winning marks inside 50

Western Bulldogs keep turning marks inside 50 wins into actual wins

They are 9-1 when they win marks inside 50, versus 30% when they do not.

90% win rate +5.5 marks inside 50 gap 20 decisive stat games

Wildcard Finals  ·  Fri 28 Aug, 7:40 PM AEST

Western Bulldogs v Collingwood

MCG

Dogs scrape through a two point Finals arm wrestle without Pendles

Tip

54%
Western Bulldogs

Coin toss confidence ~2 pts Coin toss

Form

Western Bulldogs solid edge Recent margin form is running 7.5 pts better.

Rub of the green

Collingwood solid edge Collingwood +2.1 pts · WBD -1.6 · COL +0.5
Coin toss AI agrees

Wildcard Finals  ·  Sat 29 Aug, 7:35 PM AEST

Melbourne v Carlton

MCG

Carlton fancy their chances without Lever holding that backline together

Tip

52%
Carlton

Coin toss confidence ~3 pts Coin toss

Form

Carlton big edge Recent margin form is running 22.2 pts better.

Umpire edge

Melbourne big edge Crew club residual signal 8.1 pts over 279 samples; context only.
Coin toss AI dissent