AFL Insights

Tips

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Tip difficulty Tricky Pass mark 6.72/9 tips (9th hardest so far this season)

Roughie of the week

Gold Coast over St Kilda

$2.92 · model 44% vs market 32%

Highest confidence

Geelong over Richmond

88% confidence · ~74 pts

Closest calls

1 coin toss
ESS v PORT · 54%

What stands out

Round storylines

Travel quirk
Geelong
51 pp state split

Geelong are a different side once they stay local

They are 12-3 in the same state and 2-5 interstate.

2-5 interstate 12-3 same-state
Crew rub
Collingwood
vs
Brisbane Lions
+8.3 pts crew edge

Brisbane Lions get the cleaner crew-history read

Collingwood sit -0.1 pts vs line with this appointed crew blend, while Brisbane Lions sit +8.3; the gap points Brisbane Lions's way.

COL -0.1 BRL +8.3 240 team samples

Round 24  ·  Thu 20 Aug, 7:30 PM AEST

St Kilda v Gold Coast

Marvel Stadium

Saints roll through a dead rubber under the Marvel roof

Tip

56%
St Kilda

Coin toss confidence ~16 pts

Form

St Kilda big edge Recent margin form is running 19.8 pts better.

Umpire edge

St Kilda big edge Crew club residual signal 7.5 pts over 118 samples; context only.
AI dissent

Round 24  ·  Fri 21 Aug, 7:40 PM AEST

Collingwood v Brisbane Lions

MCG

Lions pack too much punch for a Pies side missing eight

Tip

66%
Brisbane Lions

Medium confidence ~22 pts

Form

Brisbane Lions big edge Recent margin form is running 16.0 pts better.

Rub of the green

Brisbane Lions big edge Brisbane Lions +9.9 pts · COL -1.1 · BRL +8.8
AI agrees

Round 24  ·  Sat 22 Aug, 1:15 PM AEST

Carlton v Fremantle

Marvel Stadium

Dockers rest three stars and still look too strong for shorthanded Carlton

Tip

70%
Fremantle

Medium confidence ~11 pts

Rub of the green

Carlton big edge Carlton +7.8 pts · CAR +3.3 · FRE -4.4

Injury

Fremantle solid edge Outs currently sit 9-1 across the two squads.
AI agrees

Round 24  ·  Sat 22 Aug, 4:15 PM AEST

Melbourne v Western Bulldogs

MCG

Bont returns but Dees too strong at fortress MCG this arvo

Tip

72%
Melbourne

High confidence ~19 pts

Form

Melbourne big edge Recent margin form is running 18.0 pts better.

Venue

Melbourne solid edge true home ground · fortress edge
AI agrees

Round 24  ·  Sat 22 Aug, 7:45 PM AEST

Geelong v Richmond

Kardinia Park

Cameron back and Cats should feast at Kardinia Park

Tip

88%
Geelong

High confidence ~74 pts

Form

Geelong big edge Recent margin form is running 57.8 pts better.

Rub of the green

Richmond big edge Richmond +6.6 pts · GEE -4.5 · RIC +2.1

Round 24  ·  Sat 22 Aug, 7:40 PM ACST

Adelaide v GWS

Adelaide Oval

Giants dragging 14 outs to Adelaide Oval feels like a long night

Tip

85%
Adelaide

High confidence ~41 pts

Injury

Adelaide big edge Outs currently sit 5-14 across the two squads.

Venue

Adelaide big edge true home ground · fortress edge
AI agrees

Round 24  ·  Sun 23 Aug, 12:20 PM AEST

Essendon v Port Adelaide

Marvel Stadium

Power scrape home in a Sunday arm wrestle under the Marvel roof

Tip

54%
Port Adelaide

Coin toss confidence ~4 pts Coin toss

Injury

Essendon big edge Outs currently sit 9-14 across the two squads.

Rub of the green

Port Adelaide solid edge Port Adelaide +2.9 pts · ESS -1.1 · PORT +1.8
Coin toss AI dissent

Round 24  ·  Sun 23 Aug, 3:20 PM AEST

Sydney v North Melbourne

SCG

Swans off the nose beers and still too sharp for North at the SCG

Tip

56%
Sydney

Coin toss confidence ~13 pts

Form

Sydney big edge Recent margin form is running 60.5 pts better.

Injury

North Melbourne big edge Outs currently sit 13-7 across the two squads.
AI agrees

Round 24  ·  Sun 23 Aug, 5:20 PM AWST

West Coast v Hawthorn

Optus Stadium

Hawks road trip to Perth looks a stroll against a depleted Eagles

Tip

79%
Hawthorn

High confidence ~35 pts

Form

Hawthorn big edge Recent margin form is running 49.0 pts better.

Umpire edge

Hawthorn big edge Crew club residual signal 6.2 pts over 167 samples; context only.