AFL Insights

Tips

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Tip difficulty Manageable Pass mark 7.17/9 tips (6th easiest so far this season)

Roughie of the week

West Coast over GWS

$5.30 · model 34% vs market 18%

Highest confidence

Brisbane Lions over Gold Coast

89% confidence · ~34 pts

Closest calls

Tightest decisions
HAW v COL · 64% RIC v STK · 66%

What stands out

Round storylines

Ground quirk
Fremantle
11 straight Optus Stadium

Fremantle know how to handle Optus Stadium

They have won 11 straight at Optus Stadium.

11-0 at Optus Stadium 11 game sample
Day split
Western Bulldogs
100% win rate on Sundays

Western Bulldogs keep showing up on Sundays

They are 5-0 on Sundays this season.

5-0 on Sundays 5 game sample

Round 23  ·  Fri 14 Aug, 6:10 PM AWST

Fremantle v Adelaide

Optus Stadium

Pearce back and Dockers purring at fortress Optus

Tip

76%
Fremantle

High confidence ~22 pts

Form

Fremantle big edge Recent margin form is running 17.0 pts better.

Travel / turnaround

Fremantle big edge interstate travel · travel turnaround
AI agrees

Round 23  ·  Sat 15 Aug, 12:35 PM AEST

Richmond v St Kilda

MCG

Saints make it six straight over Richmond with fresh legs up

Tip

66%
St Kilda

Medium confidence ~14 pts

Form

St Kilda big edge Recent margin form is running 16.5 pts better.

Rub of the green

St Kilda big edge St Kilda +4.2 pts · RIC -2.3 · STK +2.0
AI dissent

Round 23  ·  Sat 15 Aug, 3:45 PM AEST

North Melbourne v Geelong

Marvel Stadium

Cats own this rivalry with 14 straight, no reason to stop now

Tip

69%
Geelong

Medium confidence ~9 pts

Form

Geelong big edge Recent margin form is running 44.8 pts better.

Injury

North Melbourne big edge Outs currently sit 6-8 across the two squads.
AI dissent 💀 Bogey: NTH

Round 23  ·  Sat 15 Aug, 4:15 PM AEST

Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast

Gabba

Lions own the Gabba against the Suns and six goals says so again

Tip

89%
Brisbane Lions

High confidence ~34 pts

Form

Brisbane Lions big edge Recent margin form is running 25.8 pts better.

Rub of the green

Brisbane Lions solid edge Brisbane Lions +2.4 pts · BRL -1.5 · GCS -3.9
AI agrees 🌧 Wet

Round 23  ·  Sat 15 Aug, 7:40 PM AEST

Hawthorn v Collingwood

MCG

Pies missing nine makes the Hawks job a whole lot easier

Tip

64%
Hawthorn

Medium confidence ~20 pts

Form

Hawthorn big edge Recent margin form is running 15.8 pts better.

Travel / turnaround

Collingwood solid edge travel turnaround · rest differential
AI agrees

Round 23  ·  Sat 15 Aug, 7:40 PM ACST

Port Adelaide v Melbourne

Adelaide Oval

Port lose Butters and Melbourne smell a 40 point road romp

Tip

79%
Melbourne

High confidence ~42 pts

Form

Melbourne big edge Recent margin form is running 51.2 pts better.

Injury

Melbourne big edge Outs currently sit 12-6 across the two squads.
AI agrees

Round 23  ·  Sun 16 Aug, 1:40 PM AEST

GWS v West Coast

ENGIE Stadium

Giants grind one out in the ENGIE showers over the Eagles

Tip

66%
GWS

Medium confidence ~15 pts

Form

GWS big edge Recent margin form is running 20.0 pts better.

Injury

West Coast big edge Outs currently sit 14-11 across the two squads.
🌧 Wet

Round 23  ·  Sun 16 Aug, 3:15 PM AEST

Western Bulldogs v Carlton

Marvel Stadium

Dogs down Bont and English, Carlton pounce by five goals

Tip

76%
Carlton

High confidence ~32 pts

Form

Carlton big edge Recent margin form is running 26.5 pts better.

Injury

Carlton big edge Western Bulldogs 14.1 pts lost vs Carlton 5.4.
AI agrees

Round 23  ·  Sun 16 Aug, 4:40 PM AEST

Essendon v Sydney

MCG

Swans should cruise at the G against a two-win Essendon outfit

Tip

88%
Sydney

High confidence ~67 pts

Form

Sydney big edge Recent margin form is running 95.0 pts better.

Umpire edge

Sydney big edge Crew club residual signal 6.9 pts over 88 samples; context only.
AI agrees Flat-track bully: SYD