The Bulldogs are the most fraudulent 11-7 side in 20 years of AFL data

Western Bulldogs sit 7th at 11-7 with a percentage of 93.2 and a points differential of -109 - the only top-eight side in the red. Six of their 11 wins are by 6 points or fewer, a mark matched by no other team since 2006. Their average winning margin is 17.1 against an average losing margin of 42.4. The model's true-form rating has them 9th (-1.16), below two 8-10 sides. The three comparable close-game hoarders since 2006 (2007 Essendon, 2022 Collingwood, 2023 Port Adelaide) went a combined 8-18 across the rest of their seasons.

Some teams really need their free kicks

League-wide, the free-kick count is close to meaningless: across 4,070 games since 2006 the team awarded more frees won just 53.9% of the time. But that average conceals a genuine split between clubs. Measuring each club against its OWN baseline win rate, when a side is beaten by 8 or more free kicks, Adelaide fall 21.5 percentage points below their normal win rate, West Coast 16.4, Melbourne 14.6, the Western Bulldogs 14.0 and St Kilda 13.6. At the other extreme, several clubs are effectively immune: GWS actually win MORE often when they are smashed on frees (+5.5 pts above baseline, 60 games), and Hawthorn (+1.2, 64 games), Carlton (+1.6), Gold Coast (+1.7) and Fremantle (+0.2) show no meaningful drop at all. The whistle does not decide games in general — it decides them for specific clubs.