AFL Tipping
Round 2 Published Thursday 19 March 2026, 3:31 PM AWST

Round 2

Richmond 12th • 0-1
vs
Gold Coast 2nd • 2-0

MCG  ·  Sat 21 Mar, 1:15 PM

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Recommendation

Gold Coast  83%

High

Margin: ~46 pts (13–79)

Richmond Gold Coast
17%
83%

Gold Coast's dominance in this fixture—winning six of the last eight meetings—combined with superior recent form gives the Suns a genuine edge despite the away trip to the MCG. Richmond's injury toll is biting hard without Smillie, Mansell and Ryan, while the Suns have managed their absences better and arrive with considerably better margin differential from recent weeks. The weather setup won't provide any reprieve for the Tigers, with firm conditions suiting Gold Coast's run-and-gun style. This is a classic case of a better-performed team winning the battle upfield, and the Suns should account for the Tigers by a fair margin.

Match summary

Form · Rub of the green · Travel / turnaround · Venue

Form GCS · big edge
RIC Recent margin form is running 39.5 pts better. GCS
Rub of the green RIC · big edge
RIC Richmond +7.3 pts RIC +2.7 · GCS -4.7 GCS
Travel / turnaround RIC · solid edge
RIC interstate travel, rest differential GCS
Venue RIC · solid edge
RIC true home ground, fortress edge GCS

Umpire Crew

How this crew has historically impacted each side

Rub of the green RIC +2.7 · GCS -4.7

Crew lean: Richmond +7.3 pts

Richmond Gold Coast

76 combined team-specific lined samples

Nick Jankovskis Nick Jankovskis No. 1 Richmond -5.5 pts 6 matches Gold Coast +8.5 pts 1 matches Mathew Nicholls Mathew Nicholls No. 15 Richmond +6.9 pts 23 matches Gold Coast -4.8 pts 20 matches Cameron Dore Cameron Dore No. 28 Richmond -1.8 pts 11 matches Gold Coast -5.4 pts 15 matches Joel Clamp Joel Clamp No. 30 Richmond 0.0 pts No history Gold Coast 0.0 pts No history

Context

Weather ✓ Fine · 23.0°C · forecast Sat 21 Mar
Odds Richmond: $5.10  ·  Gold Coast: $1.17
Market line 34.5
Recent H2H Gold Coast lead the last 8 meetings 6-2 (MCG: 0-1)

Injury / Availability

Availability impact looks balanced this week

Richmond 3 out
Minor impact
Key absences
Out
Samson Ryan
Out
Josh Smillie
Out
Rhyan Mansell
Tests / watchlist

No tests listed.

Gold Coast 3 out · 1 test
Minor impact
Key absences
Out
Beau Addinsall
Out
Matt Rowell
Out
Max Knobel
Tests / watchlist
Test Bailey Humphrey
Injury list
Richmond
Out
Samson Ryan 1 week
Out
Josh Smillie 3+ weeks
Out
Rhyan Mansell 3+ weeks
Gold Coast
Out
Beau Addinsall 3+ weeks
Out
Matt Rowell 3+ weeks
Out
Max Knobel 3+ weeks
Test
Bailey Humphrey Test / uncertain

Performance snapshot

Venue edge plus recent form and season-to-date situational rates.

Venue performance

MCG

Richmond Based on 143 completed games at MCG
Win rate 59%
Avg margin +5
Gold Coast Based on 12 completed games at MCG
Win rate 33%
Avg margin -21

Season performance

Richmond
Record 0-1
Avg margin -4
Upset win % 0%
Win % vs top 8 —
Home win % vs interstate —
Road win % vs interstate —
Gold Coast
Record 2-0
Avg margin +58
Upset win % —
Win % vs top 8 —
Home win % vs interstate 100%
Road win % vs interstate —

Last 5 this season

Richmond
L
vs Carlton -4 · Round 1
Gold Coast
W
vs West Coast +59 · Round 1
W
vs Geelong +56 · Opening Round

Team selection

Official AFL team sheet · updated Thursday Mar 19, 2026

Richmond

Gold Coast

Selected team
FB [21] Noah Balta, [12] Ben Miller, [35] Nathan Broad
HB [6] Sam Banks, [15] Jayden Short, [1] Nick Vlastuin
C [13] Hugo Ralphsmith, [5] Jack Ross, [28] Kane McAuliffe
HF [44] Seth Campbell, [3] Dion Prestia, [17] Maurice Rioli
FF [4] Sam Lalor, [19] Tom Lynch, [34] Harry Armstrong
FOL [25] Toby Nankervis, [14] Tim Taranto, [2] Jacob Hopper
IC [42] Mykelti Lefau, [36] James Trezise, [48] Steely Green, [30] Tom Brown, [24] Sam Grlj
EMG [50] Campbell Gray, [40] Tyler Sonsie, [26] Zane Peucker
Selected team
FB [10] Charlie Ballard, [25] Sam Collins, [6] Bodhi Uwland
HB [2] John Noble, [1] Mac Andrew, [17] Daniel Rioli
C [14] Lachie Weller, [27] Wil Powell, [33] Sam Clohesy
HF [11] Touk Miller, [20] Ethan Read, [26] Will Graham
FF [19] Bailey Humphrey, [34] Ben King, [8] Leonardo Lombard
FOL [28] Jarrod Witts, [15] Noah Anderson, [3] Christian Petracca
IC [5] Alex Davies, [16] Joel Jeffrey, [22] Ben Long, [29] Jake Rogers, [32] Zeke Uwland
EMG [23] Ned Moyle, [39] Lachlan Gulbin, [50] Jy Farrar
Ins
[1] Nick Vlastuin, [3] Dion Prestia, [42] Mykelti Lefau, [30] Tom Brown
Ins
[10] Charlie Ballard, [19] Bailey Humphrey
Outs
Rhyan Mansell - Injured, Jonty Faull - Suspension, Josh Gibcus - Omitted, [50] Campbell Gray - Omitted
Outs
Oscar Adams - Omitted, [50] Jy Farrar - Omitted