2026 Round 1

Tips

2026 Round 1 Next →

Roughie of the week

Greater Western Sydney over Western Bulldogs

$3.30 · model 46% vs market 29%

Highest confidence

Gold Coast over West Coast

88% confidence · ~73 pts

Closest calls

3 coin tosses

WBD v GWS · 54% SYD v BRL · 51%

Round 1 · Thu 12 Mar, 7:30 PM

Carlton v Richmond

MCG

Tip

No stored pre-game tip

Final CAR 75 RIC 71

Completed game archived without a pre-game recommendation.

Round 1 · Fri 13 Mar, 7:40 PM

Essendon v Hawthorn

MCG

Tip

79%

Hawthorn

High confidence ~16 pts

Form

Hawthorn big edge Recent margin form is running 42.8 pts better.

Rub of the green

Hawthorn big edge Hawthorn +14.9 pts ESS -9.2 · HAW +5.7

Round 1 · Sat 14 Mar, 1:15 PM

Western Bulldogs v Greater Western Sydney

Marvel Stadium

Tip

54%

Western Bulldogs

Coin toss confidence ~15 pts Coin toss

Rub of the green

Western Bulldogs big edge Western Bulldogs +7.4 pts WBD +9.8 · GWS +2.3

Travel / turnaround

Western Bulldogs big edge interstate travel, travel turnaround

Coin toss 💀 Bogey: GWS

Round 1 · Sat 14 Mar, 4:15 PM

Geelong v Fremantle

Kardinia Park

Tip

58%

Geelong

Medium confidence ~1 pts

Venue

Geelong big edge true home ground, fortress edge

Rub of the green

Geelong solid edge Geelong +3.8 pts GEE +1.2 · FRE -2.6

Round 1 · Sat 14 Mar, 7:10 PM

Sydney v Brisbane Lions

SCG

Tip

51%

Sydney

Coin toss confidence ~2 pts Coin toss

Form

Brisbane Lions solid edge Recent margin form is running 8.8 pts better.

Travel / turnaround

Sydney solid edge interstate travel, rest differential

Coin toss

Round 1 · Sat 14 Mar, 7:35 PM

Collingwood v Adelaide

MCG

Tip

55%

Collingwood

Coin toss confidence ~12 pts

Form

Collingwood solid edge Recent margin form is running 13.8 pts better.

Rub of the green

Collingwood solid edge Collingwood +2.6 pts COL +2.4 · ADE -0.2

💀 Bogey: ADE

Round 1 · Sun 15 Mar, 1:10 PM

North Melbourne v Port Adelaide

Marvel Stadium

Tip

60%

Port Adelaide

Medium confidence ~52 pts

Form

North Melbourne big edge Recent margin form is running 29.0 pts better.

Rub of the green

Port Adelaide big edge Port Adelaide +4.7 pts NTH -1.8 · PORT +2.8

Round 1 · Sun 15 Mar, 3:15 PM

Melbourne v St Kilda

MCG

Tip

51%

Melbourne

Coin toss confidence ~17 pts Coin toss

Form

Melbourne solid edge Recent margin form is running 13.0 pts better.

Venue

Melbourne solid edge true home ground, fortress edge

Coin toss

Round 1 · Sun 15 Mar, 6:10 PM

Gold Coast v West Coast

Carrara

Tip

88%

Gold Coast

High confidence ~73 pts

Form

Gold Coast big edge Recent margin form is running 88.0 pts better.

Rub of the green

Gold Coast big edge Gold Coast +11.2 pts GCS +10.8 · WCE -0.4