AFL Tipping
Round 2 Published Thursday 19 March 2026, 3:31 PM AWST

Umpire analytics

Residual leaderboards

Residual margin versus the closing line is the headline stat. Free-kick differential stays as supporting context only.

Retired filter

Showing active umpires only

Retired means no officiated match since 1 Aug 2025, or missing both AFLUA link and shirt number. Active 40 · retired 28.

Minimum sample

4 lined matches

Anything on 4-6 matches is still shown, but marked low confidence.

Shrinkage

+8 match prior

Leaderboards rank the shrunk residual, so one hot patch does not jump the queue too quickly.

Victorian bias set

7 clubs

Carlton, Collingwood, Richmond, Geelong, Essendon, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs

Overall favourite teams

Best club-umpire combinations

# Club Umpire Sample Residual Free-kick diff
1
Western Bulldogs
#35 Peter Bailes 7 +16.3 pts —
2
Hawthorn
#38 Matthew Young 7 +16.0 pts —
3
Geelong
#29 Andrew Heffernan 10 +15.3 pts —
4
Brisbane Lions
#32 Jacob Mollison 25 +14.5 pts -1.0
5
Port Adelaide
#4 Justin Power 11 +12.4 pts —
6
Western Bulldogs
#37 Martin Rodger 10 +12.4 pts —
7
Gold Coast
#38 Matthew Young 6 Low confidence +11.7 pts —
8
Fremantle
#32 Jacob Mollison 25 +11.7 pts —
9
Geelong
#19 Alex Whetton 12 +11.3 pts —
10
Melbourne
#31 Paul Rebeschini 7 +11.3 pts —
11
Hawthorn
#31 Paul Rebeschini 12 +11.2 pts —
12
GWS
#25 Nathan Toner 10 +11.2 pts —
13
Essendon
#26 Craig Fleer 17 +11.2 pts —
14
Melbourne
#1 Nick Jankovskis 6 Low confidence +11.1 pts —
15
Fremantle
#41 Cameron Jones 4 Low confidence +11.0 pts —
16
Fremantle
#4 Justin Power 25 +10.9 pts —
17
Brisbane Lions
#21 Simon Meredith 38 +10.8 pts —
18
Sydney
#6 Daniel Johanson 13 +10.7 pts —
19
Western Bulldogs
#11 Curtis Deboy 23 +10.6 pts —
20
Adelaide
#3 Leigh Fisher 22 +10.6 pts —

Overall hated teams

Worst club-umpire combinations

# Club Umpire Sample Residual Free-kick diff
1
West Coast
#28 Cameron Dore 19 -15.7 pts —
2
Carlton
#16 Brendan Hosking 30 -14.5 pts +4.0
3
Brisbane Lions
#36 Andrew Adair 5 Low confidence -14.4 pts —
4
Fremantle
#3 Leigh Fisher 18 -14.0 pts —
5
Port Adelaide
#14 Hayden Meyer 19 -13.6 pts —
6
St Kilda
#14 Hayden Meyer 20 -12.8 pts —
7
Essendon
#12 Andrew Stephens 22 -12.3 pts —
8
Melbourne
#4 Justin Power 11 -12.2 pts —
9
Gold Coast
#41 Cameron Jones 5 Low confidence -12.0 pts —
10
Brisbane Lions
#16 Brendan Hosking 27 -11.6 pts —
11
Carlton
#27 Andre Gianfagna 11 -11.4 pts —
12
Port Adelaide
#21 Simon Meredith 37 -11.2 pts —
13
West Coast
#20 Jamie Broadbent 6 Low confidence -11.1 pts —
14
Fremantle
#12 Andrew Stephens 15 -11.0 pts —
15
St Kilda
#35 Peter Bailes 5 Low confidence -10.9 pts —
16
North Melbourne
#25 Nathan Toner 10 -10.8 pts —
17
Port Adelaide
#37 Martin Rodger 6 Low confidence -10.6 pts —
18
Melbourne
#19 Alex Whetton 13 -10.5 pts —
19
West Coast
#10 Rob O'Gorman 21 -10.2 pts —
20
North Melbourne
#15 Mathew Nicholls 28 -9.6 pts —

Victorian bias leaderboard

Positive means pro-Victorian-club

# Umpire Bias sample Bias score Free-kick diff
1 #35 Peter Bailes 16 +10.8 pts —
2 #19 Alex Whetton 50 +9.5 pts —
3 #38 Matthew Young 13 +9.1 pts —
4 #8 Brett Rosebury 102 +6.4 pts +8.0
5 #9 Matt Stevic 97 +5.8 pts —
6 #29 Andrew Heffernan 39 +5.8 pts —
7 #26 Craig Fleer 92 +5.1 pts +8.0
8 #33 Brent Wallace 66 +4.6 pts +1.0
9 #22 Nathan Williamson 84 +3.1 pts +12.0
10 #10 Rob O'Gorman 84 +3.1 pts +1.0
11 #37 Martin Rodger 26 +3.0 pts +4.0
12 #17 John Howorth 57 +2.8 pts +8.0
13 #20 Jamie Broadbent 42 +2.8 pts +4.0
14 #36 Andrew Adair 15 +2.5 pts —
15 #40 Harrison Birch 11 +2.1 pts —
16 #14 Hayden Meyer 83 +1.9 pts +12.0
17 #18 Jack Howard 4 Low confidence +1.7 pts —
18 #21 Simon Meredith 124 +1.3 pts +4.0
19 #11 Curtis Deboy 70 +1.0 pts —
20 #16 Brendan Hosking 89 +0.6 pts +4.0