JO

Umpire profile

Joseph OBrien

Retired Last officiated 16 Aug 2026

Lean, Victorian bias and upset history for 2022-2026.

Upset likelihood

7.7%

Eligible underdog win rate

Matches 13 · Baseline 28.3% · -20.6 pts

Victorian bias

+2.3 pts

Victorian side vs non-Victorian opponent

Matches 5 · low confidence · Free-kick diff +3.4

Significant upsets

1

Only 60%+ favourites with 60+ upset scores count.

2022-2026

Club ladder

All teams ranked by lean

Lean is residual margin versus the closing line. Free-kick diff is context only.

# Club Matches Lean Free-kick diff
1
Port Adelaide
1 +5.1 pts -4.0
2
Richmond
5 +3.7 pts -1.4
3
St Kilda
2 +2.4 pts +2.0
4
Western Bulldogs
1 +1.9 pts +2.0
5
North Melbourne
1 +1.8 pts -5.0
6
Melbourne
1 +0.5 pts -4.0
7
West Coast
3 -0.9 pts +4.0
8
Brisbane Lions
1 -1.8 pts -5.0
9
Adelaide
3 -2.0 pts +0.3
10
GWS
2 -2.0 pts -9.5
11
Gold Coast
2 -2.4 pts +1.5
12
Sydney
1 -3.2 pts +1.0
13
Essendon
3 -3.2 pts +7.0
14
Carlton
15
Collingwood
16
Fremantle
17
Geelong
18
Hawthorn

Officiated shocks

Top significant upsets

Only 60+ upset scores with a 60%+ favourite are shown, so fewer than five is normal.

Essendon 10.7 67 def. GWS 8.16 64 79

Round 19 · 19 Jul 2026 · Marvel Stadium

6.70 odds · 90% favourite · 3-pt win · 39.5-pt dog