AFL Insights

Round 19

Essendon 18th • 1-16
vs
GWS 11th • 8-9

Marvel Stadium roofed  ·  Sun 19 Jul, 4:40 PM AEST

← Back

Recommendation

GWS  79%

High

Margin: ~34 pts (1–69)

Essendon GWS
21%
79%

Giants cruise past a one-win Essendon side at Marvel

GWS look well placed to roll into Marvel and hand a beleaguered Essendon another defeat, with the Giants sitting comfortably in the middle of the ladder at 8-9 while the Bombers languish at 1-16 with an ugly average losing margin of 35 points. The power and strength ratings both favour GWS clearly, and their season-long TFR of +0.2 dwarfs Essendon's dismal -6.9. The return of Lachie Whitfield adds class to the Giants' lineup, and while they have a long outs list, losing Kieren Briggs to injury is the only fresh blow. Essendon have dropped Darcy Parish and Archie Perkins, which tells you everything about where their season is at and hardly strengthens their hand for a Sunday arvo clash. Even with GWS's modest 1-2 record at Marvel in recent head-to-heads, the gap in quality this season points to a comfortable Giants win by around five or six goals.

Match summary

Form · Injury · Travel

Form GWS · big edge
ESS Recent margin form is running 53.2 pts better. GWS
Injury ESS · solid edge
ESS Outs currently sit 6-12 across the two squads. GWS
Travel ESS · solid edge
ESS interstate travel · rest differential GWS
Venue ESS · solid edge
ESS true home ground GWS
Umpire edge GWS · small edge
ESS Crew underdog rate signal 2.7 ppts over 275 samples; context only. GWS
Rub of the green GWS · small edge
ESS GWS +1.3 pts · ESS -2.8 · GWS -1.5 GWS

Last time they played

R9 2026 · ENGIE Stadium

GWS 103 def Essendon 89 GWS by 14 Noisy
Relevance 33% (Low) Overlap 66% Trust: Low

Use last result: Not reliable

Since they last met

Team selection diff

Essendon 8 in · 8 out
Essendon moderately weaker
IN
Jye Caldwell Jordan Ridley Kyle Langford Angus Clarke +4 more
OUT
Parish, Darcy Perkins, Archie Johnson, Zak Brayden Fiorini +5 more
GWS 11 in · 10 out
GWS moderately weaker
IN
Lachie Whitfield Harry Rowston Ryan Angwin Xavier O'Halloran +7 more
OUT
Briggs, Kieren Thomas, Harvey Daniels, Brent Riccardi, Jake +7 more
Change summary
Selection Essendon improved
Umpires Now favour GWS
Venue ENGIE → Marvel (now favours Essendon; less comparable)
Availability Favours Essendon
Takeaway

Treat the old result cautiously because availability now favours Essendon.

Then vs Now

Current tipping inputs against the previous meeting
Metric Trend
Power GWS improved
Form Essendon improved
Availability Essendon improved
Market Essendon improved

Umpire crew

Crew read

Compact historical lean by side

Rub of the green ESS -2.8 · GWS -1.5

Crew lean: GWS +1.3 pts

Essendon GWS

73 combined team-specific lined samples

Leigh Fisher Leigh Fisher No. 3 67g ESS -3.8 pts GWS -1.5 pts Jack Howard Jack Howard No. 18 3g ESS +3.0 pts GWS — Jordyn Pearson Jordyn Pearson No. 5 3g ESS +1.4 pts GWS — Joseph O'Brien Joseph O'Brien No. 41 ESS — GWS —
Weather 🏟 Roofed venue · forecast Sun 19 Jul
Odds Essendon: $6.70  ·  GWS: $1.11
Market line 39.5
Recent H2H
GWS lead the last 5 meetings 3-2 (Marvel: 1-2)
GWS +14
R9 2026 ENGIE
GWS +48
R19 2025 Marvel
ESS +20
R9 2024 Marvel
GWS +126
R23 2023 ENGIE
ESS +13
R4 2023 Marvel

Biggest scalp

Opponent quality first; margin breaks ties.

Essendon
Upset
def. Melbourne
Margin +45
Opp 6th
Round R5
Venue Adelaide Oval
GWS
Upset
def. Fremantle
Margin +21
Opp 1st
Round R17
Venue Manuka Oval

Injury / Availability

GWS more affected by availability this week

Essendon 6 out
Minor
Impact 5.7 pts Rating -6.0→-6.8
Key absences
Unavailable Brayden Fiorini
Unavailable Nic Martin
Unavailable Archie May
Tests / watchlist

No tests listed.

GWS 12 out · 1 test
Major
Impact 13.3 pts Rating +1.0→-0.7
Key absences
Unavailable Brent Daniels
Unavailable Tom Green
Out Kieren Briggs
Tests / watchlist
Test Finn Davis
Injury list
Essendon
Unavailable
Brayden Fiorini season · Key out · 1.83 pts risk
Unavailable
Nic Martin season · Key out · 1.51 pts risk
Unavailable
Archie May season
Unavailable
Lewis Hayes season
Out
Kayle Gerreyn 2 weeks
Out
Tom Edwards 2 weeks
GWS
Unavailable
Brent Daniels indefinite · Key out · 2.23 pts risk
Unavailable
Tom Green season · Key out · 1.89 pts risk
Unavailable
Josh Kelly season · Key out · 1.14 pts risk
Unavailable
Phoenix Gothard indefinite · Key out · 0.59 pts risk
Unavailable
Leek Aleer indefinite · Key out · 0.38 pts risk
Unavailable
Jack Buckley indefinite
Unavailable
Jesse Hogan indefinite
Unavailable
Nathan Wardius season
Out
Kieren Briggs injured · Key out · 1.19 pts risk
Out
Jake Riccardi 3+ weeks · Key out · 0.32 pts risk
Out
Darcy Jones 3+ weeks · 0.01 pts risk
Out
Ollie Hannaford 3+ weeks
Test
Finn Davis Test / uncertain

Venue performance

Marvel Stadium

Metric ESS GWS
Win rate 49% 38%
Avg margin -6 -8

Based on 177 completed games at Marvel Stadium

Season performance

Metric ESS GWS
Record 1-16 8-9
Avg margin -35 +1
True Form score -19.9 -1.8
Form heat Ice cold Hot
Model Power -6.0 +1.0
Schedule Difficulty Average draw Average draw
Upset win % 6% 38%
Win % vs top 8 12% 50%
Home win % vs interstate 0% 78%
Road win % vs interstate 0% 14%

Season trend

Ladder, true form, model power and injury by round

OR-R18

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Essendon · After R1 lost to Hawthorn 83-145 (-62) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R2 lost to Port Adelaide 70-133 (-63) · Ladder 18th Essendon · After R3 lost to North Melbourne 69-81 (-12) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R4 lost to Western Bulldogs 65-99 (-34) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R5 beat Melbourne 113-68 (+45) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R6 lost to Gold Coast 110-119 (-9) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R7 lost to Collingwood 60-137 (-77) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R8 lost to Brisbane Lions 79-143 (-64) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R9 lost to GWS 89-103 (-14) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R10 lost to Fremantle 61-104 (-43) · Ladder 17th Essendon · After R11 lost to Richmond 56-74 (-18) · Ladder 18th Essendon · After R12 lost to West Coast 55-85 (-30) · Ladder 18th Essendon · After R13 lost to Carlton 67-72 (-5) · Ladder 18th Essendon · After R14 lost to Melbourne 50-95 (-45) · Ladder 18th Essendon · After R16 lost to North Melbourne 65-79 (-14) · Ladder 18th Essendon · After R17 lost to St Kilda 50-117 (-67) · Ladder 18th Essendon · After R18 lost to Brisbane Lions 59-149 (-90) · Ladder 18th GWS · After OR beat Hawthorn 122-95 (+27) · Ladder 3rd GWS · After R1 lost to Western Bulldogs 53-134 (-81) · Ladder 10th GWS · After R2 lost to St Kilda 74-78 (-4) · Ladder 13th GWS · After R3 lost to Collingwood 54-87 (-33) · Ladder 15th GWS · After R5 beat Richmond 131-75 (+56) · Ladder 12th GWS · After R6 lost to Sydney 66-107 (-41) · Ladder 14th GWS · After R7 beat North Melbourne 105-98 (+7) · Ladder 14th GWS · After R8 lost to Gold Coast 63-83 (-20) · Ladder 14th GWS · After R9 beat Essendon 103-89 (+14) · Ladder 13th GWS · After R10 lost to West Coast 71-88 (-17) · Ladder 13th GWS · After R11 beat Brisbane Lions 166-88 (+78) · Ladder 12th GWS · After R12 beat Melbourne 119-70 (+49) · Ladder 10th GWS · After R14 lost to St Kilda 88-96 (-8) · Ladder 11th GWS · After R15 lost to Carlton 65-88 (-23) · Ladder 13th GWS · After R16 lost to Hawthorn 82-96 (-14) · Ladder 14th GWS · After R17 beat Fremantle 109-88 (+21) · Ladder 13th GWS · After R18 beat Geelong 86-73 (+13) · Ladder 11th GWS 11th Essendon 18th OR R4 R9 R14 R18

Season to date

Essendon
L
vs Brisbane Lions -90 · R18 Gabba
L
vs St Kilda -67 · R17 Marvel
L
vs North Melbourne -14 · R16 Marvel
L
vs Melbourne -45 · R14 MCG
L
vs Carlton -5 · R13 MCG
12 older results
L
vs West Coast -30 · R12 Optus
L
vs Richmond -18 · R11 MCG
L
vs Fremantle -43 · R10 MCG
L
vs GWS -14 · R9 ENGIE
L
vs Brisbane Lions -64 · R8 Marvel
L
vs Collingwood -77 · R7 MCG
L
vs Gold Coast -9 · R6 Carrara
W
vs Melbourne +45 · R5 Adel Oval
L
vs Western Bulldogs -34 · R4 Marvel
L
vs North Melbourne -12 · R3 Marvel
L
vs Port Adelaide -63 · R2 Adel Oval
L
vs Hawthorn -62 · R1 MCG
GWS
W
vs Geelong +13 · R18 ENGIE
W
vs Fremantle +21 · R17 Manuka Oval
L
vs Hawthorn -14 · R16 MCG
L
vs Carlton -23 · R15 ENGIE
L
vs St Kilda -8 · R14 Marvel
12 older results
W
vs Melbourne +49 · R12 Traeger Park
W
vs Brisbane Lions +78 · R11 ENGIE
L
vs West Coast -17 · R10 Optus
W
vs Essendon +14 · R9 ENGIE
L
vs Gold Coast -20 · R8 Carrara
W
vs North Melbourne +7 · R7 Manuka Oval
L
vs Sydney -41 · R6 SCG
W
vs Richmond +56 · R5 Barossa
L
vs Collingwood -33 · R3 Marvel
L
vs St Kilda -4 · R2 ENGIE
L
vs Western Bulldogs -81 · R1 Marvel
W
vs Hawthorn +27 · OR ENGIE

Team selection

Official AFL final squad · updated Friday Jul 17, 2026

Essendon

Selected team
FB [1] Andrew McGrath, [31] Zach Reid, [14] Jordan Ridley
HB [4] Kyle Langford, [27] Mason Redman, [21] Archie Roberts
C [36] Angus Clarke, [22] Sam Durham, [34] Jaxon Artemis
HF [15] Dyson Sharp, [30] Nate Caddy, [28] Xavier Duursma
FF [10] Isaac Kako, [20] Peter Wright, [44] Archer Day-Wicks
FOL [24] Nick Bryan, [7] Zach Merrett, [9] Sullivan Robey
IC [2] Jacob Farrow, [6] Jye Caldwell, [25] Jaxon Prior, [29] Max Kondogiannis, [33] Hussien El Achkar
EMG [3] Darcy Parish, [16] Archie Perkins, [46] Lachlan Blakiston
Ins
[14] Jordan Ridley, [4] Kyle Langford, [34] Jaxon Artemis, [33] Hussien El Achkar
Outs
Harrison Jones - Omitted, [3] Darcy Parish - Omitted, [16] Archie Perkins - Omitted, [46] Lachlan Blakiston - Omitted
Milestones
[34] Jaxon Artemis - Debut game

GWS

Selected team
FB [39] Connor Idun, [15] Sam Taylor, [25] Jayden Laverde
HB [27] Harry Himmelberg, [7] Lachie Ash, [37] Joe Fonti
C [9] Ryan Angwin, [10] Clayton Oliver, [6] Lachie Whitfield
HF [3] Stephen Coniglio, [5] Aaron Cadman, [43] Riley Hamilton
FF [14] Toby Bedford, [20] Jake Stringer, [46] Callum Brown
FOL [41] Nicholas Madden, [4] Toby Greene, [17] Finn Callaghan
IC [28] Jack Ough, [18] Conor Stone, [24] Harry Rowston, [33] Xavier O'Halloran, [35] Max Gruzewski
EMG [29] Cody Angove, [19] Harrison Oliver, [38] Josaia Delana
Ins
[6] Lachie Whitfield, [41] Nicholas Madden, [18] Conor Stone, [35] Max Gruzewski
Outs
Harvey Thomas - Managed, Kieren Briggs - Injured, Phoenix Gothard - Injured, [19] Harrison Oliver - Omitted
Milestones
[33] Xavier O'Halloran - 100th game