AFL Insights

Round 19

Sydney 2nd • 13-4
vs
Adelaide 5th • 11-6

SCG  ·  Fri 17 Jul, 7:40 PM AEST

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Recommendation

Sydney  52%

Coin toss  ·  ⚠ close game

Margin: ~12 pts (1–47)

Sydney Adelaide
52%
48%
AI edge AI dissent Multi Factor

Leans Adelaide  ·  Medium

Model sees coin toss but market has Sydney 13-point overs

Model gives Sydney just 52% but market prices them at 65% (-14.5 line). Adelaide's superior TFR (+1.9 vs +1.1), wet conditions, umpire lean (+4.8pts), and Walker managed (not injured) create value at $2.73.

Showers and seven outs but Sydney own the Crows at the SCG

Sydney hold serve at the SCG despite a few headwinds, leaning on home ground advantage and a dominant 4-1 record against Adelaide from the last five meetings. The Swans welcome back Braeden Campbell and Logan McDonald as fresh inclusions, which helps offset a lengthy seven-man absence list. Adelaide lose key experience with Taylor Walker managed and Rory Laird injured, and the interstate trip to Sydney doesn't help a side that actually rates slightly higher on raw strength this season. The Crows' recent form has been rougher by the numbers, sitting at a minus-34.5 margin differential compared to a Sydney outfit averaging plus-26 for the year from second spot on the ladder. This is a genuine coin-flip contest, but the home ground edge and travel factor are just enough to tilt it the Swans' way in a tight Friday night affair.

Roughie of the week: Adelaide at $2.73. Model 48% vs market 35%. This is the value swing, not the main accuracy tip.

Match summary

Form · Rub of the green · Weather

Form ADE · big edge
SYD Recent margin form is running 34.5 pts better. ADE
Rub of the green ADE · big edge
SYD Adelaide +4.8 pts · SYD -1.8 · ADE +3.1 ADE
Weather ADE · big edge
SYD Wet-weather setup slightly suits this side. ADE
Umpire edge ADE · solid edge
SYD Crew club residual signal 4.7 pts over 260 samples; context only. ADE
Travel SYD · solid edge
SYD interstate travel · rest differential ADE
Venue SYD · solid edge
SYD true home ground ADE
Injury ADE · small edge
SYD Outs currently sit 7-2 across the two squads. ADE

Last time they played

R12 2025 · SCG

Adelaide 131 def Sydney 41 Adelaide by 90 Blowout
Relevance 44% (Low) Overlap 66% Trust: Low

Use last result: Not reliable

Since they last met

Team selection diff

Sydney 11 in · 11 out
Sydney much stronger
IN
Errol Gulden Callum Mills Riley Bice Jai Serong +7 more
OUT
McInerney, Justin Ladhams, Peter Sam Wicks Joel Amartey +7 more
Adelaide 8 in · 8 out
Adelaide much stronger
IN
Lachlan McAndrew Hugo Hall-Kahan Brayden Cook Isaac Cumming +4 more
OUT
Rory Laird Walker, Taylor Pedlar, Luke Butts, Jordon +4 more
Change summary
Selection Sydney improved
Umpires Now favour Sydney
Venue Same venue (favours Sydney)
Availability Favours Adelaide
Takeaway

Treat the old result cautiously because availability now favours Adelaide.

Then vs Now

Current tipping inputs against the previous meeting
Metric Trend
Power Sydney improved
Form Adelaide improved
Availability Adelaide improved
Market Sydney improved

Umpire crew

Crew read

Compact historical lean by side

Rub of the green SYD -1.8 · ADE +3.1

Crew lean: Adelaide +4.8 pts

Sydney Adelaide

260 combined team-specific lined samples

Brent Wallace Brent Wallace No. 33 37g SYD -1.5 pts ADE +6.2 pts Simon Meredith Simon Meredith No. 21 94g SYD -6.6 pts ADE -0.5 pts Jacob Mollison Jacob Mollison No. 32 75g SYD +0.1 pts ADE +5.2 pts Andrew Stephens Andrew Stephens No. 12 54g SYD +3.8 pts ADE +3.8 pts
Weather 🌧 Wet (20.0mm) · forecast Fri 17 Jul
Odds Sydney: $1.44  ·  Adelaide: $2.73
Market line -14.5
Recent H2H
Sydney lead the last 5 meetings 4-1 (SCG: 2-1)
ADE +90
R12 2025 SCG
SYD +31
R24 2024 SCG
SYD +42
R14 2024 Adel Oval
SYD +1
R23 2023 Adel Oval
SYD +33
R19 2022 SCG

Biggest scalp

Opponent quality first; margin breaks ties.

Sydney
Rated win
def. Brisbane Lions
Margin +44
Opp 4th
Round R1
Venue SCG
Adelaide
Rated win
def. Melbourne
Margin +17
Opp 6th
Round R15
Venue Adelaide Oval

Injury / Availability

Sydney slightly more affected by availability this week

Sydney 7 out
Minor
Impact 5.9 pts Rating +1.9→+1.1
Key absences
Out Justin McInerney
Out Sam Wicks
Out Joel Amartey
Adelaide 2 out
Minor
Impact 4.0 pts Rating +2.7→+2.2
Key absences
Unavailable Rory Laird
Out Mitch Hinge
Injury list
Sydney
Unavailable
Liam Hetherton season
Unavailable
Max King season
Unavailable
Peter Ladhams indefinite
Out
Justin McInerney 3+ weeks · Key out · 2.61 pts risk
Out
Sam Wicks 3+ weeks · Key out · 0.81 pts risk
Out
Joel Amartey 3+ weeks
Out
Noah Chamberlain 3+ weeks
Adelaide
Unavailable
Rory Laird indefinite · Key out · 1.89 pts risk
Out
Mitch Hinge 3+ weeks · Key out · 0.45 pts risk

Venue performance

SCG

Metric SYD ADE
Win rate 69% 55%
Avg margin +22 +1

Based on 195 completed games at SCG

Season performance

Metric SYD ADE
Record 13-4 11-6
Avg margin +26 +13
True Form score +13.8 +12.3
Form heat Cold Hot
Model Power +1.9 +2.7
Schedule Difficulty Average draw Average draw
Upset win % 0% 38%
Win % vs top 8 62% 43%
Home win % vs interstate 100% 75%
Road win % vs interstate 50% 57%

Season trend

Ladder, true form, model power and injury by round

OR-R18

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Sydney · After OR beat Carlton 132-69 (+63) · Ladder 1st Sydney · After R1 beat Brisbane Lions 104-60 (+44) · Ladder 1st Sydney · After R2 lost to Hawthorn 82-99 (-17) · Ladder 3rd Sydney · After R4 beat West Coast 163-35 (+128) · Ladder 2nd Sydney · After R5 beat Gold Coast 100-68 (+32) · Ladder 1st Sydney · After R6 beat GWS 107-66 (+41) · Ladder 1st Sydney · After R7 beat Western Bulldogs 126-60 (+66) · Ladder 1st Sydney · After R8 beat Melbourne 131-114 (+17) · Ladder 1st Sydney · After R9 beat North Melbourne 105-97 (+8) · Ladder 1st Sydney · After R10 beat Collingwood 81-75 (+6) · Ladder 1st Sydney · After R11 lost to Geelong 80-107 (-27) · Ladder 2nd Sydney · After R12 beat Richmond 170-56 (+114) · Ladder 2nd Sydney · After R13 beat St Kilda 104-102 (+2) · Ladder 2nd Sydney · After R14 beat Port Adelaide 93-90 (+3) · Ladder 2nd Sydney · After R16 lost to Brisbane Lions 83-126 (-43) · Ladder 2nd Sydney · After R17 beat Western Bulldogs 90-55 (+35) · Ladder 2nd Sydney · After R18 lost to Fremantle 73-111 (-38) · Ladder 2nd Adelaide · After R1 beat Collingwood 93-79 (+14) · Ladder 5th Adelaide · After R2 lost to Western Bulldogs 88-94 (-6) · Ladder 8th Adelaide · After R3 lost to Geelong 60-68 (-8) · Ladder 12th Adelaide · After R4 lost to Fremantle 76-78 (-2) · Ladder 13th Adelaide · After R5 beat Carlton 114-86 (+28) · Ladder 11th Adelaide · After R6 beat St Kilda 103-102 (+1) · Ladder 10th Adelaide · After R7 lost to Brisbane Lions 75-127 (-52) · Ladder 13th Adelaide · After R8 beat Port Adelaide 76-75 (+1) · Ladder 11th Adelaide · After R9 beat Richmond 98-61 (+37) · Ladder 8th Adelaide · After R10 beat North Melbourne 133-65 (+68) · Ladder 8th Adelaide · After R11 lost to Hawthorn 66-75 (-9) · Ladder 7th Adelaide · After R13 beat Geelong 75-74 (+1) · Ladder 8th Adelaide · After R14 beat Western Bulldogs 121-64 (+57) · Ladder 6th Adelaide · After R15 beat Melbourne 79-62 (+17) · Ladder 5th Adelaide · After R16 lost to Port Adelaide 71-97 (-26) · Ladder 6th Adelaide · After R17 beat West Coast 99-74 (+25) · Ladder 5th Adelaide · After R18 beat Gold Coast 128-49 (+79) · Ladder 5th Sydney 2nd Adelaide 5th OR R4 R9 R14 R18

Season to date

Sydney
L
vs Fremantle -38 · R18 Optus
W
vs Western Bulldogs +35 · R17 SCG
L
vs Brisbane Lions -43 · R16 Gabba
W
vs Port Adelaide +3 · R14 Adel Oval
W
vs St Kilda +2 · R13 SCG
12 older results
W
vs Richmond +114 · R12 SCG
L
vs Geelong -27 · R11 Kardinia
W
vs Collingwood +6 · R10 SCG
W
vs North Melbourne +8 · R9 Marvel
W
vs Melbourne +17 · R8 SCG
W
vs Western Bulldogs +66 · R7 Marvel
W
vs GWS +41 · R6 SCG
W
vs Gold Coast +32 · R5 Norwood
W
vs West Coast +128 · R4 Optus
L
vs Hawthorn -17 · R2 MCG
W
vs Brisbane Lions +44 · R1 SCG
W
vs Carlton +63 · OR SCG
Adelaide
W
vs Gold Coast +79 · R18 Adel Oval
W
vs West Coast +25 · R17 Optus
L
vs Port Adelaide -26 · R16 Adel Oval
W
vs Melbourne +17 · R15 Adel Oval
W
vs Western Bulldogs +57 · R14 Marvel
12 older results
W
vs Geelong +1 · R13 Adel Oval
L
vs Hawthorn -9 · R11 UTAS
W
vs North Melbourne +68 · R10 Adel Oval
W
vs Richmond +37 · R9 MCG
W
vs Port Adelaide +1 · R8 Adel Oval
L
vs Brisbane Lions -52 · R7 Gabba
W
vs St Kilda +1 · R6 Adel Oval
W
vs Carlton +28 · R5 Adel Oval
L
vs Fremantle -2 · R4 Adel Oval
L
vs Geelong -8 · R3 Kardinia
L
vs Western Bulldogs -6 · R2 Adel Oval
W
vs Collingwood +14 · R1 MCG

Team selection

Official AFL team sheet · updated Friday Jul 17, 2026

Sydney

Selected team
FB [14] Callum Mills, [28] William Edwards, [30] Tom McCartin
HB [24] Dane Rampe, [22] Nick Blakey, [7] Harry Cunningham
C [34] Matt Roberts, [21] Errol Gulden, [13] Jai Serong
HF [17] James Jordon, [44] Jake Lloyd, [8] James Rowbottom
FF [11] Tom Papley, [35] Charlie Curnow, [2] Hayden McLean
FOL [4] Brodie Grundy, [5] Isaac Heeney, [1] Chad Warner
IC [26] Riley Bice, [16] Braeden Campbell, [6] Logan McDonald, [12] Angus Sheldrick, [10] Malcolm Rosas
EMG [32] Harry Kyle, [29] Joel Hamling, [40] Tom Hanily
Ins
[26] Riley Bice, [16] Braeden Campbell, [6] Logan McDonald, [10] Malcolm Rosas
Outs
[32] Harry Kyle - Omitted, [29] Joel Hamling - Omitted, [40] Tom Hanily - Omitted, Caiden Cleary - Omitted

Adelaide

Selected team
FB [48] Mark Keane, [35] James Borlase, [16] Max Michalanney
HB [15] Brayden Cook, [24] Josh Worrell, [30] Wayne Milera
C [40] Hugo Hall-Kahan, [12] Jordan Dawson, [44] Isaac Cumming
HF [23] Izak Rankine, [7] Riley Thilthorpe, [8] Josh Rachele
FF [14] Jake Soligo, [32] Darcy Fogarty, [28] Alex Neal-Bullen
FOL [42] Lachlan McAndrew, [3] Sam Berry, [6] Daniel Curtin
IC [2] Ben Keays, [19] Zac Taylor, [39] Toby Murray, [25] James Peatling, [27] Luke Nankervis
EMG [31] Billy Dowling, [36] Finnbar Maley, [9] Nick Murray
Ins
[40] Hugo Hall-Kahan, [44] Isaac Cumming
Outs
Taylor Walker - Managed, Rory Laird - Injured