AFL Insights

Round 19

Geelong 9th • 9-8
vs
St Kilda 10th • 8-9

Kardinia Park  ·  Thu 16 Jul, 7:30 PM AEST

← Back

Recommendation

Geelong  70%

High

Margin: ~16 pts (1–51)

Geelong St Kilda
70%
30%
AI edge AI agrees Multi Factor

Leans Geelong  ·  Medium

Cameron out but Kardinia fortress holds against Saints' 0-2 away record there

St Kilda are 0-2 at Kardinia Park in last 5 meetings despite leading the series 3-2 overall. Cameron's absence is already in the line; umpire lean to Saints is minor at 1pt.

Cats claw back that Kardinia Park fortress edge over the Saints

Geelong get the nod in a Thursday night clash that looms as pivotal for both clubs' top-eight hopes, with the Cats sitting ninth and the Saints tenth in a tight middle-of-the-ladder squeeze. Kardinia Park under lights is a genuine fortress, and the Saints' 0-2 record there in recent meetings underlines just how hard it is to win at the Cattery. The Cats welcome back Jhye Clark, Mark O'Connor, and Gryan Miers, adding quality to their line-up even with Tanner Bruhn joining the casualty ward. St Kilda carry six likely outs compared to Geelong's four, and the Cats hold the stronger overall rating, which tips the balance despite the Saints' slightly better recent form. Expect Geelong's home-ground edge and deeper available talent to grind out a two-to-three-goal win in what should be a tense, season-defining contest for both sides.

Match summary

Form · Venue · Injury

Form STK · big edge
GEE Recent margin form is running 16.5 pts better. STK
Venue GEE · big edge
GEE true home ground · fortress edge STK
Injury STK · solid edge
GEE Outs currently sit 4-6 across the two squads. STK
Umpire edge STK · small edge
GEE Crew underdog rate signal 1.5 ppts over 816 samples; context only. STK
Rub of the green STK · small edge
GEE St Kilda +1.0 pts · GEE +2.4 · STK +3.4 STK
Travel GEE · small edge
GEE travel turnaround STK
Head to head GEE · small edge
GEE Recent meetings lean this matchup. STK

Last time they played

R19 2025 · Kardinia Park

Geelong 113 def St Kilda 82 Geelong by 31 Normal
Relevance 75% (High) Overlap 72% Trust: High

Use last result: Good guide

Since they last met

Team selection diff

Geelong 9 in · 9 out
Geelong moderately weaker
IN
Gryan Miers James Worpel Mark O'Connor Oliver Henry +5 more
OUT
Tanner Bruhn Cameron, Jeremy Stanley, Rhys Bowes, Jack +4 more
St Kilda 8 in · 7 out
St Kilda moderately stronger
IN
Hugo Garcia Jack Silvagni Mattaes Phillipou Hunter Clark +4 more
OUT
Sinclair, Jack Sam Flanders Macrae, Jack Boxshall, Hugh +5 more
Change summary
Selection St Kilda improved
Umpires No strong lean
Venue Same venue (favours Geelong)
Availability Favours St Kilda
Takeaway

Treat the old result cautiously because availability now favours St Kilda.

Then vs Now

Current tipping inputs against the previous meeting
Metric Trend
Power St Kilda improved
Form St Kilda improved
Availability St Kilda improved
Market St Kilda improved

Umpire crew

Crew read

Compact historical lean by side

Rub of the green GEE +2.4 · STK +3.4

Crew lean: St Kilda +1.0 pts

Geelong St Kilda

205 combined team-specific lined samples

Martin Rodger Martin Rodger No. 37 20g GEE -2.4 pts STK +5.2 pts Nathan Williamson Nathan Williamson No. 22 47g GEE +5.3 pts STK +4.4 pts Brendan Hosking Brendan Hosking No. 16 67g GEE +1.9 pts STK +4.4 pts Brett Rosebury Brett Rosebury No. 8 71g GEE +2.2 pts STK +0.5 pts
Weather ✓ Fine · 15.0°C · nearest forecast Fri 17 Jul
Odds Geelong: $1.42  ·  St Kilda: $2.79
Market line -15.5
Recent H2H
St Kilda lead the last 5 meetings 3-2 (Kardinia: 0-2)
GEE +31
R19 2025 Kardinia
STK +7
R2 2025 Marvel
STK +18
R23 2024 Marvel
GEE +8
R1 2024 Kardinia
STK +33
R23 2023 Marvel

Biggest scalp

Opponent quality first; margin breaks ties.

Geelong
Rated win
def. Fremantle
Margin +10
Opp 1st
Round R1
Venue Kardinia Park
St Kilda
Upset
def. GWS
Margin +4
Opp 11th
Round R2
Venue ENGIE Stadium

Injury / Availability

Geelong more affected by availability this week

Geelong 4 out · 1 test
Major
Impact 12.0 pts ±0.3 Rating +2.8→+1.2
Key absences
Unavailable Toby Conway
Out Jeremy Cameron
Out Tanner Bruhn
Tests / watchlist
Test Rhys Stanley
St Kilda 6 out
Minor
Impact 6.0 pts Rating +0.1→-0.7
Key absences
Unavailable Jack Sinclair
Unavailable Sam Flanders
Out Max King
Tests / watchlist

No tests listed.

Injury list
Geelong
Unavailable
Toby Conway indefinite · Key out · 2.33 pts risk
Unavailable
Harley Barker indefinite
Out
Jeremy Cameron 3+ weeks · Key out · 2.08 pts risk
Out
Tanner Bruhn injured · Key out · 1.40 pts risk
Test
Rhys Stanley Test / uncertain · 1.20 pts risk
St Kilda
Unavailable
Jack Sinclair season · Key out · 1.92 pts risk
Unavailable
Sam Flanders season · Key out · 1.59 pts risk
Out
Max King 3+ weeks · 0.00 pts risk
Out
Alix Tauru 3+ weeks
Out
James Barrat 3+ weeks
Out
Tom De Koning 3+ weeks

Venue performance

Kardinia Park

Metric GEE STK
Win rate 83% 0%
Avg margin +36 -46

Based on 165 completed games at Kardinia Park

Season performance

Metric GEE STK
Record 9-8 8-9
Avg margin +13 +5
True Form score +4.4 -2.5
Form heat Ice cold Hot
Model Power +2.8 +0.1
Schedule Difficulty Above-average draw Average draw
Upset win % 25% 25%
Win % vs top 8 60% 0%

Season trend

Ladder, true form, model power and injury by round

OR-R18

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 Geelong · After OR lost to Gold Coast 69-125 (-56) · Ladder 9th Geelong · After R1 beat Fremantle 110-100 (+10) · Ladder 9th Geelong · After R3 beat Adelaide 68-60 (+8) · Ladder 10th Geelong · After R4 lost to Hawthorn 91-92 (-1) · Ladder 11th Geelong · After R5 beat West Coast 122-76 (+46) · Ladder 8th Geelong · After R6 beat Western Bulldogs 131-56 (+75) · Ladder 6th Geelong · After R7 lost to Port Adelaide 65-95 (-30) · Ladder 9th Geelong · After R8 beat North Melbourne 135-86 (+49) · Ladder 6th Geelong · After R9 beat Collingwood 122-68 (+54) · Ladder 5th Geelong · After R10 beat Brisbane Lions 117-76 (+41) · Ladder 3rd Geelong · After R11 beat Sydney 107-80 (+27) · Ladder 3rd Geelong · After R12 lost to Carlton 84-88 (-4) · Ladder 4th Geelong · After R13 lost to Adelaide 74-75 (-1) · Ladder 4th Geelong · After R14 beat Gold Coast 105-60 (+45) · Ladder 3rd Geelong · After R15 lost to Fremantle 90-99 (-9) · Ladder 4th Geelong · After R17 lost to Brisbane Lions 101-123 (-22) · Ladder 7th Geelong · After R18 lost to GWS 73-86 (-13) · Ladder 9th St Kilda · After OR lost to Collingwood 66-78 (-12) · Ladder 7th St Kilda · After R1 lost to Melbourne 107-120 (-13) · Ladder 14th St Kilda · After R2 beat GWS 78-74 (+4) · Ladder 10th St Kilda · After R3 lost to Brisbane Lions 80-113 (-33) · Ladder 14th St Kilda · After R5 beat Port Adelaide 81-67 (+14) · Ladder 14th St Kilda · After R6 lost to Adelaide 102-103 (-1) · Ladder 13th St Kilda · After R7 beat West Coast 143-42 (+101) · Ladder 12th St Kilda · After R8 beat Carlton 108-69 (+39) · Ladder 9th St Kilda · After R9 lost to Gold Coast 60-89 (-29) · Ladder 11th St Kilda · After R10 beat Richmond 109-73 (+36) · Ladder 9th St Kilda · After R11 lost to Fremantle 74-104 (-30) · Ladder 11th St Kilda · After R12 lost to Hawthorn 67-119 (-52) · Ladder 12th St Kilda · After R13 lost to Sydney 102-104 (-2) · Ladder 12th St Kilda · After R14 beat GWS 96-88 (+8) · Ladder 10th St Kilda · After R15 lost to Western Bulldogs 61-83 (-22) · Ladder 12th St Kilda · After R17 beat Essendon 117-50 (+67) · Ladder 12th St Kilda · After R18 beat Port Adelaide 87-73 (+14) · Ladder 10th Geelong 9th St Kilda 10th OR R4 R8 R13 R18

Season to date

Geelong
L
vs GWS -13 · R18 ENGIE
L
vs Brisbane Lions -22 · R17 Kardinia
L
vs Fremantle -9 · R15 Optus
W
vs Gold Coast +45 · R14 Kardinia
L
vs Adelaide -1 · R13 Adel Oval
12 older results
L
vs Carlton -4 · R12 MCG
W
vs Sydney +27 · R11 Kardinia
W
vs Brisbane Lions +41 · R10 Gabba
W
vs Collingwood +54 · R9 MCG
W
vs North Melbourne +49 · R8 Kardinia
L
vs Port Adelaide -30 · R7 Adel Oval
W
vs Western Bulldogs +75 · R6 Kardinia
W
vs West Coast +46 · R5 Norwood
L
vs Hawthorn -1 · R4 MCG
W
vs Adelaide +8 · R3 Kardinia
W
vs Fremantle +10 · R1 Kardinia
L
vs Gold Coast -56 · OR Carrara
St Kilda
W
vs Port Adelaide +14 · R18 Marvel
W
vs Essendon +67 · R17 Marvel
L
vs Western Bulldogs -22 · R15 Marvel
W
vs GWS +8 · R14 Marvel
L
vs Sydney -2 · R13 SCG
12 older results
L
vs Hawthorn -52 · R12 Marvel
L
vs Fremantle -30 · R11 Optus
W
vs Richmond +36 · R10 Marvel
L
vs Gold Coast -29 · R9 TIO
W
vs Carlton +39 · R8 Marvel
W
vs West Coast +101 · R7 Marvel
L
vs Adelaide -1 · R6 Adel Oval
W
vs Port Adelaide +14 · R5 Adel Oval
L
vs Brisbane Lions -33 · R3 Marvel
W
vs GWS +4 · R2 ENGIE
L
vs Melbourne -13 · R1 MCG
L
vs Collingwood -12 · OR MCG

Team selection

Official AFL team sheet · updated Thursday Jul 16, 2026

Geelong

Selected team
FB [44] Tom Stewart, [14] Connor O'Sullivan, [30] Tom Atkins
HB [39] Zach Guthrie, [38] Jack Henry, [42] Mark O'Connor
C [28] Oliver Dempsey, [3] Bailey Smith, [13] Jhye Clark
HF [32] Gryan Miers, [7] Shaun Mannagh, [45] Brad Close
FF [35] Patrick Dangerfield, [33] Shannon Neale, [2] Jay Polkinghorne
FOL [11] Mitchell Edwards, [9] Max Holmes, [34] Oisin Mullin
IC [17] Lawson Humphries, [16] Sam De Koning, [29] James Worpel, [21] Oliver Wiltshire, [36] Oliver Henry
EMG [46] Mark Blicavs, [10] Mitch Knevitt, [12] Jack Bowes
Ins
[42] Mark O'Connor, [13] Jhye Clark, [32] Gryan Miers, [45] Brad Close, [2] Jay Polkinghorne, [11] Mitchell Edwards, [29] James Worpel
Outs
Jake Kolodjashnij - Managed, Tanner Bruhn - Injured, [10] Mitch Knevitt - Omitted, Jeremy Cameron - Injured, Jack Martin - Managed, [46] Mark Blicavs - Managed, [12] Jack Bowes - Omitted
Milestones
[2] Jay Polkinghorne - Debut game

St Kilda

Selected team
FB [3] Jack Silvagni, [44] Callum Wilkie, [47] Anthony Caminiti
HB [8] Bradley Hill, [14] Liam Stocker, [13] Ryan Byrnes
C [22] Darcy Wilson, [2] Marcus Windhager, [45] Liam O'Connell
HF [1] Jack Higgins, [31] Liam Ryan, [40] Max Hall
FF [32] Mason Wood, [43] Cooper Sharman, [10] Mitch Owens
FOL [19] Rowan Marshall, [34] Hugo Garcia, [7] Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
IC [5] Tobie Travaglia, [11] Hunter Clark, [23] Liam Henry, [25] Mattaes Phillipou, [39] Campbell Lake
EMG [16] Dan Butler, [30] Alex Dodson, [38] Hugh Boxshall
Ins
[11] Hunter Clark
Outs
Angus Hastie - Omitted
Milestones
[7] Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera - 100th game