Recommendation
Hawthorn 88%
Margin: ~48 pts
Hawthorn get Battle and Weddle back into a mismatch Richmond can't close
Hawks regain Battle and Weddle while Richmond remain injury-gutted at 2-15. Umpire crew data adds +4.3 for Hawks, and the $1.05 line leaves no value opposing. This is as lopsided as it gets.
Hawks welcome back Weddle and Watson for a Sunday stroll at the G
Hawthorn look well placed to roll a depleted Richmond outfit at the MCG, with the Hawks sitting third on the ladder at 11-5-1 compared to the Tigers' dire 2-15 record and an average losing margin of 39 points. The return of Josh Battle, Josh Weddle, and the electric Nick Watson adds firepower, even with Will Day and Ned Reeves missing from the lineup. Richmond welcome back Jayden Short, but the Tigers' season-long struggles, reflected in a woeful -3.3 team form rating against Hawthorn's +4.0, suggest the gap in quality is simply too wide. The Hawks have won three of the last five meetings at the MCG and carry significantly better recent form, making this one hard to see going any other way. Expect a comfortable afternoon for the brown and gold by the length of the Punt Road straight.
Match summary
Form · Rub of the green · Venue
Last time they played
Use last result: Not reliable
Treat the old result cautiously because availability now favours Hawthorn.
Umpire crew
Compact historical lean by side
116 combined team-specific lined samples
Biggest scalp
Opponent quality first; margin breaks ties.
Injury / Availability
Richmond
Hawthorn
Venue performance
Based on 259 completed games at MCG
Season performance
Season trend
OR-R18
After each completed round
Results-anchored score after each completed round
Raw model rating entering each round
Expected points lost entering each round
Season to date
Team selection
