AFL Insights

Round 19

West Coast 16th • 4-13
vs
Brisbane Lions 4th • 11-6

Optus Stadium  ·  Sat 18 Jul, 6:10 PM AWST

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Recommendation

Brisbane Lions  87%

High

Margin: ~44 pts (9–79)

West Coast Brisbane Lions
13%
87%
AI edge AI agrees Multi Factor

Leans Brisbane Lions  ·  High

Every angle stacks for Lions, umpire lean adds to already lopsided matchup

5-0 H2H streak, 43.5pt line, umpire crew history adds ~6pts to Lions, and West Coast's -28 avg margin screams capitulation. Weather nudge for Eagles is trivial against this weight of evidence.

Lions have won five straight over West Coast and nothing here says that changes

Brisbane sit fourth on the ladder with an 11-6 record and a healthy +16 average margin, while West Coast are anchored in 16th at 4-13 and copping defeats by an average of 28 points. The Eagles are missing a whopping 12 players, including fresh outs Cooper Duff-Tytler and Harry Barnett, which strips depth from a side already struggling to be competitive. The Lions welcome James Tunstill into the side and carry just two absences, giving them a massive availability edge to go with superior power and strength ratings. Brisbane have won the last five meetings between these clubs, including at Optus Stadium, and nothing in recent form suggests the Eagles can buck that trend. Even factoring in the cross-country travel and a forecast that marginally suits the home side, the gap in quality and personnel is simply too wide for West Coast to bridge.

Match summary

Form · Rub of the green · Travel

Form BRL · big edge
WCE Recent margin form is running 71.2 pts better. BRL
Rub of the green BRL · big edge
WCE Brisbane Lions +5.9 pts · WCE -3.7 · BRL +2.1 BRL
Travel WCE · big edge
WCE interstate travel · travel turnaround BRL
Umpire edge BRL · solid edge
WCE Crew club residual signal 6.0 pts over 114 samples; context only. BRL
Injury BRL · solid edge
WCE Outs currently sit 12-2 across the two squads. BRL
Venue WCE · solid edge
WCE true home ground · fortress edge BRL
Weather WCE · solid edge
WCE Wet-weather setup slightly suits this side. BRL
Head to head BRL · small edge
WCE Recent meetings lean this matchup. BRL

Last time they played

R2 2025 · Gabba

Brisbane Lions 94 def West Coast 75 Brisbane Lions by 19 Noisy
Relevance 21% (Low) Overlap 50% Trust: Low

Use last result: Not reliable

Since they last met

Team selection diff

West Coast 17 in · 17 out
West Coast much stronger
IN
Tom McCarthy Willem Duursma Oliver Francou Jack Graham +13 more
OUT
Williams, Bailey Deven Robertson Josh Lindsay Maric, Ryan +15 more
Brisbane 6 in · 6 out
Brisbane much stronger
IN
Charlie Cameron Sam Draper Darcy Fort Kai Lohmann +2 more
OUT
Reville, Bruce Darcy Gardiner McLachlan, Will Ah Chee, Callum +3 more
Change summary
Selection West Coast improved
Umpires Now favour Brisbane
Venue Gabba → Optus (still favours Brisbane; less comparable)
Availability Favours Brisbane
Takeaway

Treat the old result cautiously because availability now favours Brisbane.

Then vs Now

Current tipping inputs against the previous meeting
Metric Trend
Power West Coast improved
Form West Coast improved
Availability Brisbane improved
Market West Coast improved

Umpire crew

Crew read

Compact historical lean by side

Rub of the green WCE -3.7 · BRL +2.1

Crew lean: Brisbane Lions +5.9 pts

West Coast Brisbane Lions

114 combined team-specific lined samples

Nicholas McGinness Nicholas McGinness No. 42 21g WCE +0.5 pts BRL +8.5 pts Nick Brown Nick Brown No. 13 47g WCE -6.5 pts BRL +0.2 pts Daniel Johanson Daniel Johanson No. 6 33g WCE -2.9 pts BRL +1.8 pts Jordan Fry Jordan Fry No. 39 13g WCE -4.4 pts BRL -0.7 pts
Weather 🌧 Wet (5.0mm) · forecast Sat 18 Jul
Odds West Coast: $8.60  ·  Brisbane Lions: $1.07
Market line 43.5
Recent H2H
Brisbane Lions lead the last 5 meetings 5-0 (Optus: 1-0)
BRL +19
R2 2025 Gabba
BRL +13
R18 2024 Optus
BRL +81
R17 2023 Gabba
BRL +75
R8 2022 Gabba
BRL +38
R23 2021 Gabba

Biggest scalp

Opponent quality first; margin breaks ties.

West Coast
Upset
def. GWS
Margin +17
Opp 11th
Round R10
Venue Optus Stadium
Brisbane Lions
Rated win
def. Sydney
Margin +43
Opp 2nd
Round R16
Venue Gabba

Injury / Availability

West Coast more affected by availability this week

West Coast 12 out
Minor
Impact 5.0 pts ±0.1 Rating -1.5→-2.2
Key absences
Out Josh Lindsay
Unavailable Deven Robertson
Out Reuben Ginbey
Brisbane Lions 2 out
Minor
Impact Pending Rating +2.8→+2.8
Key absences
Unavailable Jack Payne
Out Darcy Gardiner
Injury list
West Coast
Unavailable
Deven Robertson season · Key out · 0.89 pts risk
Unavailable
Tyler Brockman season · Key out · 0.16 pts risk
Unavailable
Archer Reid season
Unavailable
Harry Edwards season
Unavailable
Jacob Newton season
Unavailable
Noah Long season
Out
Josh Lindsay 1 week · Key out · 1.42 pts risk
Out
Reuben Ginbey 3+ weeks · Key out · 0.46 pts risk
Out
Harry Barnett 1 week · 0.01 pts risk
Out
Cooper Duff-Tytler 1-2 weeks
Out
Malakai Champion 1 week
Out
Sam Allen 3+ weeks
Brisbane Lions
Unavailable
Jack Payne season · 0.00 pts risk
Out
Darcy Gardiner 3+ weeks

Venue performance

Optus Stadium

Metric WCE BRL
Win rate 44% 62%
Avg margin -9 +19

Based on 104 completed games at Optus Stadium

Season performance

Metric WCE BRL
Record 4-13 11-6
Avg margin -28 +16
True Form score -15.2 +12.5
Form heat Ice cold Red hot
Model Power -1.5 +2.8
Schedule Difficulty Average draw Average draw
Upset win % 20% 67%
Win % vs top 8 0% 43%
Home win % vs interstate 43% 62%
Road win % vs interstate 11% 62%

Season trend

Ladder, true form, model power and injury by round

OR-R18

Ladder trend

After each completed round

1 10 18 West Coast · After R1 lost to Gold Coast 72-131 (-59) · Ladder 18th West Coast · After R2 beat North Melbourne 111-94 (+17) · Ladder 12th West Coast · After R3 beat Port Adelaide 92-90 (+2) · Ladder 9th West Coast · After R4 lost to Sydney 35-163 (-128) · Ladder 12th West Coast · After R5 lost to Geelong 76-122 (-46) · Ladder 15th West Coast · After R6 lost to Fremantle 41-97 (-56) · Ladder 15th West Coast · After R7 lost to St Kilda 42-143 (-101) · Ladder 15th West Coast · After R8 lost to Richmond 88-99 (-11) · Ladder 15th West Coast · After R9 lost to Melbourne 67-99 (-32) · Ladder 15th West Coast · After R10 beat GWS 88-71 (+17) · Ladder 15th West Coast · After R11 lost to Collingwood 82-92 (-10) · Ladder 16th West Coast · After R12 beat Essendon 85-55 (+30) · Ladder 15th West Coast · After R13 lost to Port Adelaide 71-77 (-6) · Ladder 16th West Coast · After R14 lost to North Melbourne 73-74 (-1) · Ladder 16th West Coast · After R16 lost to Carlton 64-117 (-53) · Ladder 16th West Coast · After R17 lost to Adelaide 74-99 (-25) · Ladder 16th West Coast · After R18 lost to Western Bulldogs 70-86 (-16) · Ladder 16th Brisbane Lions · After OR lost to Western Bulldogs 106-111 (-5) · Ladder 6th Brisbane Lions · After R1 lost to Sydney 60-104 (-44) · Ladder 15th Brisbane Lions · After R3 beat St Kilda 113-80 (+33) · Ladder 13th Brisbane Lions · After R4 beat Collingwood 119-65 (+54) · Ladder 9th Brisbane Lions · After R5 beat North Melbourne 92-66 (+26) · Ladder 6th Brisbane Lions · After R6 lost to Melbourne 102-104 (-2) · Ladder 9th Brisbane Lions · After R7 beat Adelaide 127-75 (+52) · Ladder 5th Brisbane Lions · After R8 beat Essendon 143-79 (+64) · Ladder 4th Brisbane Lions · After R9 beat Carlton 100-89 (+11) · Ladder 4th Brisbane Lions · After R10 lost to Geelong 76-117 (-41) · Ladder 7th Brisbane Lions · After R11 lost to GWS 88-166 (-78) · Ladder 8th Brisbane Lions · After R12 lost to Fremantle 78-103 (-25) · Ladder 9th Brisbane Lions · After R13 beat Gold Coast 106-75 (+31) · Ladder 9th Brisbane Lions · After R14 beat Richmond 115-80 (+35) · Ladder 7th Brisbane Lions · After R16 beat Sydney 126-83 (+43) · Ladder 5th Brisbane Lions · After R17 beat Geelong 123-101 (+22) · Ladder 4th Brisbane Lions · After R18 beat Essendon 149-59 (+90) · Ladder 4th Brisbane Lions 4th West Coast 16th OR R4 R8 R13 R18

Season to date

West Coast
L
vs Western Bulldogs -16 · R18 Marvel
L
vs Adelaide -25 · R17 Optus
L
vs Carlton -53 · R16 Marvel
L
vs North Melbourne -1 · R14 Optus
L
vs Port Adelaide -6 · R13 Optus
12 older results
W
vs Essendon +30 · R12 Optus
L
vs Collingwood -10 · R11 MCG
W
vs GWS +17 · R10 Optus
L
vs Melbourne -32 · R9 Marvel
L
vs Richmond -11 · R8 Optus
L
vs St Kilda -101 · R7 Marvel
L
vs Fremantle -56 · R6 Optus
L
vs Geelong -46 · R5 Norwood
L
vs Sydney -128 · R4 Optus
W
vs Port Adelaide +2 · R3 Adel Oval
W
vs North Melbourne +17 · R2 Optus
L
vs Gold Coast -59 · R1 Carrara
Brisbane Lions
W
vs Essendon +90 · R18 Gabba
W
vs Geelong +22 · R17 Kardinia
W
vs Sydney +43 · R16 Gabba
W
vs Richmond +35 · R14 Blundstone
W
vs Gold Coast +31 · R13 Carrara
12 older results
L
vs Fremantle -25 · R12 Gabba
L
vs GWS -78 · R11 ENGIE
L
vs Geelong -41 · R10 Gabba
W
vs Carlton +11 · R9 Gabba
W
vs Essendon +64 · R8 Marvel
W
vs Adelaide +52 · R7 Gabba
L
vs Melbourne -2 · R6 MCG
W
vs North Melbourne +26 · R5 Barossa
W
vs Collingwood +54 · R4 Gabba
W
vs St Kilda +33 · R3 Marvel
L
vs Sydney -44 · R1 SCG
L
vs Western Bulldogs -5 · OR Gabba

Team selection

Official AFL team sheet · updated Friday Jul 17, 2026

West Coast

Selected team
FB [14] Liam Duggan, [33] Rhett Bazzo, [4] Brandon Starcevich
HB [51] Marcus Herbert, [20] Tylar Young, [3] Liam Baker
C [1] Willem Duursma, [6] Elliot Yeo, [26] Bo Allan
HF [11] Tim Kelly, [35] Jobe Shanahan, [17] Jack Graham
FF [47] Milan Murdock, [2] Jake Waterman, [44] Jack Hutchinson
FOL [32] Bailey J. Williams, [9] Harley Reid, [50] Oliver Francou
IC [18] Tom McCarthy, [19] Brady Hough, [28] Tom Cole, [34] Jack Williams, [38] Hamish Davis
EMG [23] Ryan Maric, [24] Harvey Johnston, [48] Harry Schoenberg
Ins
None listed
Outs
None listed

Brisbane Lions

Selected team
FB [43] Noah Answerth, [31] Harris Andrews, [35] Ryan Lester
HB [44] Darcy Wilmot, [22] Ty Gallop, [15] Dayne Zorko
C [7] Jarrod Berry, [8] Will Ashcroft, [33] Zac Bailey
HF [23] Charlie Cameron, [13] Logan Morris, [10] Levi Ashcroft
FF [2] Sam Draper, [16] Cam Rayner, [1] Kai Lohmann
FOL [32] Darcy Fort, [5] Josh Dunkley, [9] Lachie Neale
IC [3] Jaspa Fletcher, [6] Hugh McCluggage, [26] Conor McKenna, [29] James Tunstill, [30] Eric Hipwood
EMG [14] Daniel Annable, [34] Shadeau Brain, [37] Cody Curtin
Ins
[29] James Tunstill
Outs
Bruce Reville - Personal Reason