Gold Coast vs Western Bulldogs

Round 19

Gold Coast 14th • 7-10

Western Bulldogs 7th • 10-7

Carrara · Sun 19 Jul, 3:15 PM AEST

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Recommendation

Gold Coast 55%

Coin toss

Margin: ~10 pts (1–45)

Gold Coast Western Bulldogs

55%

45%

AI edge AI dissent Multi Factor

Leans Western Bulldogs · Medium

Model drivers and umpire data both point away from Gold Coast despite home pricing

Model's own drivers favor the away side on both home and away momentum, umpire crew history gives Dogs a 2.7pt edge, and Tim English returns into wet conditions that suit contested play. Market has Gold Coast too short a

Suns back Rioli and rain at Carrara to edge the Dogs

Gold Coast get the nod at home despite the Bulldogs sitting higher on the ladder and holding the edge in recent head-to-head clashes. The Suns welcome back Daniel Rioli, Ben Long, and Caleb Lewis, which should add some bite to a side that has been competitive but inconsistent at 7-10. The Dogs lose Bailey Dale to injury and make multiple list changes of their own, with Tim English and Ryley Sanders coming in to steady the ship. Carrara has been a genuine fortress factor for the Suns over the years, and asking the Bulldogs to travel north in the back half of the season is no small ask. Showers and a greasy deck at 3:15 PM could neutralise some of the Dogs' slick ball movement, giving the home side just enough of an edge to pinch this one by a couple of kicks.

Match summary

Form · Injury · Weather

Form WBD · big edge

GCS Recent margin form is running 24.5 pts better. WBD

Injury GCS · big edge

GCS Outs currently sit 4-3 across the two squads. WBD

Weather WBD · big edge

GCS Wet-weather setup slightly suits this side. WBD

Rub of the green WBD · solid edge

GCS Western Bulldogs +2.7 pts · GCS -4.5 · WBD -1.8 WBD

Venue GCS · solid edge

GCS true home ground WBD

Umpire edge WBD · small edge

GCS Crew Vic/non-Vic residual signal 2.4 pts over 192 samples; context only. WBD

Travel GCS · small edge

GCS interstate travel WBD

Last time they played

R9 2025 · TIO Stadium

Gold Coast 106 def Western Bulldogs 96 Gold Coast by 10 Close

Relevance 31% (Low) Overlap 61% Trust: Low

Use last result: Not reliable

Since they last met

Team selection diff

Gold Coast 11 in · 10 out

Gold Coast moderately stronger

Christian Petracca Daniel Rioli Ned Moyle Beau Addinsall +7 more

OUT

Witts, Jarrod Clohesy, Sam Alex Davies Lachie Weller +10 more

Bulldogs 11 in · 10 out

Bulldogs moderately stronger

Tim English Ryley Sanders Nick Coffield Michael Sellwood +7 more

OUT

Dale, Bailey Freijah, Joel Connor Budarick Sam Darcy +8 more

Change summary

Selection Gold Coast improved

Umpires Now favour Bulldogs

Venue TIO → Carrara (favours Gold Coast; less comparable)

Availability Favours Gold Coast

Takeaway

Treat the old result cautiously because availability now favours Gold Coast.

Then vs Now

Current tipping inputs against the previous meeting

Metric Trend

Power Gold Coast improved

Form Gold Coast improved

Availability Gold Coast improved

Market Similar

Umpire crew

Crew read

Compact historical lean by side

Rub of the green GCS -4.5 · WBD -1.8

Crew lean: Western Bulldogs +2.7 pts

Gold Coast Western Bulldogs

121 combined team-specific lined samples

Andrew Heffernan No. 29 28g GCS -8.7 pts WBD -2.0 pts

Harrison Birch No. 40 11g GCS -7.9 pts WBD -6.9 pts

John Howorth No. 17 42g GCS -2.4 pts WBD -4.7 pts

Andre Gianfagna No. 27 40g GCS -1.9 pts WBD +1.9 pts

Weather 🌧 Wet (15.0mm) · forecast Sun 19 Jul

Odds Gold Coast: $1.80 · Western Bulldogs: $2.05

Market line -2.5

Recent H2H

Western Bulldogs lead the last 5 meetings 3-2 (Carrara: 1-0)

GCS +10

R9 2025 TIO

WBD +48

R2 2024 Mars

GCS +7

R11 2023 TIO

WBD +19

R10 2022 Mars

WBD +11

R18 2021 Carrara

Biggest scalp

Opponent quality first; margin breaks ties.

Gold Coast

Rated win

def. Geelong

Margin +56

Opp 9th

Round OR

Venue Carrara

Western Bulldogs

Upset

def. Hawthorn

Margin +6

Opp 3rd

Round R13

Venue MCG

Injury / Availability

Western Bulldogs more affected by availability this week

Gold Coast 4 out · 2 tests

Minor

Impact 1.8 pts ±0.1 Rating -3.8→-4.0

Key absences

Unavailable Elliott Himmelberg

Out Lachie Weller

Out Lachie Gulbin

Tests / watchlist

Test Alex Davies Test Jy Farrar

Western Bulldogs 3 out · 1 test

Major

Impact 10.9 pts Rating -2.2→-3.6

Key absences

Unavailable Sam Darcy

Out Connor Budarick

Out Bailey Dale

Tests / watchlist

Test Laith Vandermeer

Injury list

Gold Coast

Unavailable

Elliott Himmelberg season · Key out · 0.47 pts risk

Unavailable

Will Graham indefinite

Out

Lachie Weller 3+ weeks · Key out · 0.10 pts risk

Out

Lachie Gulbin 3+ weeks

Test

Alex Davies Test / uncertain · 0.48 pts risk

Test

Jy Farrar Test / uncertain

Western Bulldogs

Unavailable

Sam Darcy season · Key out · 2.22 pts risk

Out

Connor Budarick 3+ weeks · Key out · 2.19 pts risk

Out

Bailey Dale 3+ weeks · Key out · 1.95 pts risk

Test

Laith Vandermeer Test / uncertain

Venue performance

Carrara

Metric GCS WBD

Win rate 43% 58%

Avg margin -6 -1

Based on 149 completed games at Carrara

Season performance

Metric GCS WBD

Record 7-10 10-7

Avg margin -4 -7

True Form score -10.7 +2.8

Form heat Ice cold Building

Model Power -3.8 -2.2

Schedule Difficulty Average draw Average draw

Upset win % 0% 44%

Win % vs top 8 0% 50%

Home win % vs interstate 75% 40%

Road win % vs interstate 12% 75%

Season trend

Ladder, true form, model power and injury by round

OR-R18

Ladder trend

After each completed round

Season to date

Gold Coast

vs Adelaide -79 · R18 Adel Oval

vs Collingwood -6 · R17 Carrara

vs Fremantle -51 · R16 Optus

vs Hawthorn -16 · R15 Carrara

vs Geelong -45 · R14 Kardinia

12 older results

vs Brisbane Lions -31 · R13 Carrara

vs North Melbourne -6 · R11 Marvel

vs Port Adelaide +25 · R10 TIO

vs St Kilda +29 · R9 TIO

vs GWS +20 · R8 Carrara

vs Hawthorn -49 · R7 UTAS

vs Essendon +9 · R6 Carrara

vs Sydney -32 · R5 Norwood

vs Melbourne -20 · R4 MCG

vs Richmond +68 · R2 MCG

vs West Coast +59 · R1 Carrara

vs Geelong +56 · OR Carrara

Western Bulldogs

vs West Coast +16 · R18 Marvel

vs Sydney -35 · R17 SCG

vs St Kilda +22 · R15 Marvel

vs Adelaide -57 · R14 Marvel

vs Hawthorn +6 · R13 MCG

12 older results

vs Collingwood +4 · R12 Marvel

vs Melbourne +3 · R11 Marvel

vs Carlton -12 · R10 Marvel

vs Port Adelaide +2 · R9 Adel Oval

vs Fremantle -12 · R8 Marvel

vs Sydney -66 · R7 Marvel

vs Geelong -75 · R6 Kardinia

vs Hawthorn -40 · R5 Adel Oval

vs Essendon +34 · R4 Marvel

vs Adelaide +6 · R2 Adel Oval

vs GWS +81 · R1 Marvel

vs Brisbane Lions +5 · OR Gabba

Team selection

Official AFL final squad · updated Friday Jul 17, 2026

Gold Coast

Selected team

FB [1] Mac Andrew, [6] Bodhi Uwland, [25] Sam Collins

HB [2] John Noble, [32] Zeke Uwland, [27] Wil Powell

C [35] Jai Murray, [15] Noah Anderson, [11] Touk Miller

HF [8] Leonardo Lombard, [38] Beau Addinsall, [19] Bailey Humphrey

FF [22] Ben Long, [4] Jed Walter, [34] Ben King

FOL [23] Ned Moyle, [18] Matt Rowell, [3] Christian Petracca

IC [45] Caleb Lewis, [16] Joel Jeffrey, [17] Daniel Rioli, [48] Oscar Adams, [30] Dylan Patterson

EMG [7] Nick Holman, [10] Charlie Ballard, [33] Sam Clohesy

Ins

[22] Ben Long, [45] Caleb Lewis, [17] Daniel Rioli

Outs

Will Graham - Injured, Ethan Read - Omitted, [7] Nick Holman - Managed

Milestones

[45] Caleb Lewis - Debut game

Western Bulldogs

Selected team

FB [37] Michael Sellwood, [18] James O'Donnell, [24] Buku Khamis

HB [29] Lachlan Bramble, [7] Rory Lobb, [17] Nick Coffield

C [9] Ryley Sanders, [4] Marcus Bontempelli, [6] Cooper Hynes

HF [42] Sam Davidson, [16] Jordan Croft, [32] Arthur Jones

FF [14] Rhylee West, [33] Aaron Naughton, [3] Cody Weightman

FOL [44] Tim English, [21] Tom Liberatore, [20] Ed Richards

IC [5] Jedd Busslinger, [26] Josh Dolan, [38] Riley Garcia, [8] Matthew Kennedy, [34] Bailey Williams

EMG [13] Oskar Baker, [27] Joel Freijah, [28] Will Lewis

Ins

[17] Nick Coffield, [9] Ryley Sanders, [44] Tim English, [38] Riley Garcia

Outs

Bailey Dale - Injured, Luke Cleary - Omitted, Luke Kennedy - Omitted, [27] Joel Freijah - Omitted

Milestones

None listed

R9 2025 · TIO Stadium

Since they last met

Team selection diff

Then vs Now

Crew read

Crew lean: Western Bulldogs +2.7 pts

Western Bulldogs more affected by availability this week

Ladder trend

True Form trend

Model Power trend

Injury trend

Gold Coast

Western Bulldogs